When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released? Polymarket odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is No release by November 1, at 81%. The market settles by Nov 1, 2026, and $7K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 81¢ reads as an 81% chance.
Polymarket · odds · updated
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No release by November 1 | 81% | 81¢ | $2K | Trade |
| October 19–October 25 | 9% | 9¢ | $4K | Trade |
| October 5–October 11 | 5% | 5¢ | $66 | Trade |
| October 12–October 18 | 3% | 3¢ | $359 | Trade |
| October 26–November 1 | 1% | 1¢ | $383 | Trade |
| September 7–September 13Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| September 14–September 20Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| September 21–September 27Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| September 28–October 4Final | 0% | 0¢ | $180 | |
| Prior to August 31Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 |
Show 1 more outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 31–September 6Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 81¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Scheduled resolution: Nov 1, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 81¢ for No release by November 1 right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
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Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on “When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?”?
On Polymarket, the favourite is No release by November 1, at 81%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.