Polymarket market

When will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released? Polymarket odds

On Polymarket, the favourite is October 26–November 1, at 52%. The market settles by Dec 27, 2026, and $6K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 52¢ reads as a 52% chance.

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Polymarket · odds · updated

October 26–November 152%
November 2–November 810%
December 7–December 1310%
November 9–November 159%
November 16–November 227%

All 11 outcomes ↓

$6K
24h volume on Polymarket
$19K
total volume on Polymarket
11
open of 11 outcomes
Dec 27, 2026
settles

Polymarket odds on every outcome

Polymarket odds on each outcome of When will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released?
OutcomeChanceYes price24h volume
October 26–November 152%52¢$3KTrade
November 2–November 810%10¢$108Trade
December 7–December 1310%10¢$402Trade
November 9–November 159%9¢$379Trade
November 16–November 227%7¢$444Trade
November 30–December 66%6¢$109Trade
No release by December 275%5¢$1KTrade
December 21–December 274%4¢$306Trade
November 23–November 293%3¢$119Trade
December 14–December 201%1¢$30Trade
Show 1 more outcome
Polymarket odds on each outcome of When will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released?
OutcomeChanceYes price24h volume
Prior to October 26<1%<1¢$19Trade
Close-only for US residents

Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 52¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How the odds have moved

Polymarket · October 26–November 1
52%▲ 38.5 pts since Oct 22
Yes price
Oct 2211% – 52% scaleOct 25

Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.

How this market resolves

Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.

Show the full rules

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Terra model (5.7+) is made available to the general public.

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Terra" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Terra would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Terra or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Terra" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Sol, or GPT-5.6 Luna, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Scheduled resolution: Nov 1, 2026.

How to trade this market on Polymarket

  1. Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
  2. Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
  3. Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 52¢ for October 26–November 1 right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
  4. Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
Close-only for US residents

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Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.

Common questions

What are the Polymarket odds on “When will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) be released?”?

On Polymarket, the favourite is October 26–November 1, at 52%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.

How does this market resolve?

By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.

Is this question on Kalshi too?

We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.

Can I trade this market in my state?

In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.

How accurate are Polymarket odds?

Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?

A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.