Which company has the best AI Agent end of December? Polymarket odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is Anthropic, at 89%. The market settles by Dec 31, 2026, and $505 traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 89¢ reads as an 89% chance. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Kalshi: compare both
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic compare | 89% | 89¢ | $437 | Trade |
| OpenAI | 6% | 6¢ | $0 | Trade |
| 4% | 4¢ | $68 | Trade | |
| Meta | 1% | 1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| SpaceXAI | 1% | 1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Z.ai | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Alibaba | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Tencent | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Amazon | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Meituan | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
Show 9 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ByteDance | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Moonshot | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Microsoft | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| MiniMax | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Mistral | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| DeepSeek | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Nvidia | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Baidu | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Xiaomi | – | – | $0 | Trade |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 89¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on this question
The same question on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 89¢ | 12¢ | 0.4¢ | $437 | $3K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 33¢ | 67¢ | 1.5¢ | $348 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Scheduled resolution: Dec 31, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 89¢ for Anthropic right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on “Which company has the best AI Agent end of December?”?
On Polymarket, the favourite is Anthropic, at 89%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. Our side-by-side page shows both prices and both venues' rules.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.