Will Claude go down on … days in October? Polymarket odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is 5-7, at 77%. The market settles by Oct 31, 2026, and $7K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 77¢ reads as a 77% chance. We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet, so there is no second price.
Polymarket · odds · updated
Polymarket odds on every outcome
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 77¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve according to the number of days in October 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Scheduled resolution: Oct 31, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket app review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 77¢ for 5-7 right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.
More tech & science markets
Which company has the best AI model end of October?
Polymarket · resolves Oct 31, 2026
$142K in 24h on Polymarket
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Polymarket · resolves Dec 31, 2026
$57K in 24h on Polymarket
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released
Polymarket · resolves Dec 31, 2026
$36K in 24h on Polymarket
OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution
Polymarket · Kalshi · resolves Dec 31, 2027
$31K in 24h on Polymarket
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...
Polymarket · resolves Oct 31, 2026
$24K in 24h on Polymarket
Which company has the best AI model end of November?
Polymarket · resolves Nov 30, 2026
$14K in 24h on Polymarket
Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on “Will Claude go down on … days in October?”?
On Polymarket, the favourite is 5-7, at 77%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.