Polymarket market

How many US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30? Polymarket odds

Q: What are the Polymarket odds on “How many US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30?”?

On Polymarket, the favourite is 3, at 85%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.

Q: How does this market resolve?

By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.

Q: Is this question on Kalshi too?

We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.

Q: Can I trade this market in my state?

In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.

Q: How accurate are Polymarket odds?

Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.

Q: What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?

A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.

On Polymarket, the favourite is 3, at 85%. The market settles by Nov 30, 2026, and $6K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 85¢ reads as an 85% chance. We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet, so there is no second price.

Trade on Polymarket

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Polymarket · odds · updated 00:43 UTC

385%

215%

1<1%

$6K

24h volume on Polymarket

$55K

total volume on Polymarket

open of 5 outcomes

Nov 30, 2026

settles

Polymarket odds on every outcome

Polymarket odds on each outcome of How many US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30?
Outcome	Chance	Yes price	24h volume
3	85%	85¢	$2K	Trade
2	15%	15¢	$2K	Trade
1	<1%	<1¢	$506	Trade
0	–	–	$534	Trade
4+	–	–	$704	Trade

Close-only for US residents

Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 85¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How the odds have moved

Polymarket · 3

85%▲ 22.5 pts since Nov 8

Yes price

Nov 849% – 85% scaleNov 15

Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.

How this market resolves

Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.

Show the full rules

This market will resolve according to the number of U.S. Navy aircraft carriers physically located within the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility at 12:00 PM ET on November 30, 2026.

For the purposes of this market, “aircraft carriers” refers only to U.S. Navy aircraft carriers designated CVN (e.g., Nimitz-class and Gerald R. Ford-class carriers). Amphibious assault ships (LHA/LHD), other vessels, and ships of any other country will not count.

A carrier will count if it is within the CENTCOM area of responsibility at the specified time, including while making a port call or other stop within the area. A carrier outside the CENTCOM area of responsibility at the specified time (e.g., in transit, or making a port call in the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command or U.S. European Command areas of responsibility) will not count, regardless of whether it is assigned to CENTCOM operations. A carrier that enters the area on November 30, 2026 will count only if it entered at or before 12:00 PM ET; a carrier that departs the area on November 30, 2026 will count only if it departed after 12:00 PM ET.

Carrier locations will be determined by official information from the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, or U.S. European Command, or by a consensus of credible reporting, and may be established by information published after the specified time. In the event of ambiguity as to the number of carriers within the area at the specified time, this market will remain open until the earlier of: (i) confirmation of the relevant carriers' locations at the specified time, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) following November 30, 2026. The market will resolve based on the totality of information available at that time. Any carrier whose presence within the area at the specified time remains materially ambiguous at that point will not be counted.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States government and military, including the U.S. Navy, the Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and U.S. European Command, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Scheduled resolution: Nov 30, 2026.

How to trade this market on Polymarket

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Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 85¢ for 3 right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
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Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.