Polymarket Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control odds
On Polymarket, the busiest line, December 31, is at 7%. The market settles by Dec 31, 2026, and $20K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 7¢ reads as a 7% chance.
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 7% | 7¢ | $3K | Trade |
| October 31 | 1% | 1¢ | $16K | Trade |
| April 15Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| June 24Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| April 30Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| June 30Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| September 30Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| May 31Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| March 31Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| July 31Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 |
Show 1 more outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 31Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 7¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Scheduled resolution: Dec 31, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 7¢ for December 31 right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
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Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control?
On Polymarket, the busiest line, December 31, is at 7%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.