Polymarket Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting odds
On Polymarket, the busiest line, October 31, is at over 99%. The market settles by Oct 30, 2026, and $294K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so over 99¢ reads as an over 99% chance.
Polymarket · odds · updated
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | >99% | >99¢ | $294K | Trade |
| November 15Final | 100% | 100¢ | $0 | |
| September 15Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| October 15Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| November 30Final | 100% | 100¢ | $0 | |
| September 30Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| December 31Final | 100% | 100¢ | $0 | |
| August 31Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at >99¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Scheduled resolution: Oct 31, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Is Polymarket safe? Our review covers how your money is held and paid out.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, >99¢ for October 31 right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
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Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting?
On Polymarket, the busiest line, October 31, is at over 99%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.