Polymarket USS Theodore Roosevelt arrives in CENTCOM odds
On Polymarket, the busiest line, November 15, is at 32%. The market settles by Nov 30, 2026, and $4K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 32¢ reads as a 32% chance.
Polymarket · odds · updated
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Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 32¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) enters the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The Roosevelt will be considered to have entered the CENTCOM area of responsibility upon confirmation by the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, or U.S. Indo-Pacific Command that the ship has entered the CENTCOM area of responsibility or the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations, or upon a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the ship has physically entered the CENTCOM area of responsibility.
The arrival must occur by the listed deadline. In the event of ambiguity as to whether the USS Theodore Roosevelt entered the specified area by the specified time, this market will remain open until the earlier of: (i) confirmation that the USS Theodore Roosevelt entered the specified area by the listed deadline, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) following the listed deadline. The market will resolve based on the totality of information available at that time. If there is material ambiguity as to whether the USS Theodore Roosevelt entered the specified area by that time, this market will resolve to “No.”
Port calls, exercises, or other operations outside the CENTCOM area of responsibility, including in the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command area of responsibility, will not qualify. Announcements, orders, schedules, or reports that the ship will arrive, is en route, or is heading to the Middle East will not qualify absent confirmation that the qualifying arrival has occurred. A qualifying arrival will count regardless of the ship's subsequent movements or tasking.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States government and military, including the U.S. Navy, the Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, and U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Scheduled resolution: Nov 15, 2026.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on USS Theodore Roosevelt arrives in CENTCOM?
On Polymarket, the busiest line, November 15, is at 32%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.