Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in 2027? Polymarket odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is No Return to Normal Traffic in 2027, at 22%. The market settles by Dec 31, 2027, and $3K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 22¢ reads as a 22% chance.
Polymarket · odds · updated
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Return to Normal Traffic in 2027 | 22% | 22¢ | $287 | Trade |
| January 2027 | 20% | 20¢ | $143 | Trade |
| March 2027 | 15% | 15¢ | $144 | Trade |
| August 2027 | 15% | 15¢ | $325 | Trade |
| February 2027 | 9% | 9¢ | $269 | Trade |
| October 2027 | 9% | 9¢ | $265 | Trade |
| April 2027 | 9% | 9¢ | $263 | Trade |
| June 2027 | 8% | 8¢ | $95 | Trade |
| November 2027 | 7% | 7¢ | $165 | Trade |
| May 2027 | 6% | 6¢ | $155 | Trade |
Show 3 more outcomes
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 22¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve according to the calendar month containing the first date from January 1, 2027 to December 31, 2027 for which the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, according to IMF PortWatch, is at least 60. If no such date occurs, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2027”.
IMF PortWatch typically publishes a rounded 7-day moving average in the chart on its chokepoint page and an unrounded figure in its downloadable files. The figure shown in the chart will be used for settlement. If the chart is unavailable, the downloadable figure, rounded to the nearest whole number, will be used.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a qualifying 7-day moving average, or once IMF PortWatch has published data for every date in the period with no qualifying 7-day moving average. Revisions made after that point will not be considered, unless subject to the data integrity clause below. If any data is still unpublished 14 calendar days after the period’s final date, this market will resolve on the most recent data published at that time.
In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the Transit Calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
Scheduled resolution: Dec 31, 2027.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Is Polymarket legit? Our review covers safety, sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 22¢ for No Return to Normal Traffic in 2027 right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
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Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on “Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in 2027?”?
On Polymarket, the favourite is No Return to Normal Traffic in 2027, at 22%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.