Jeremy Bragin
Manifold Markets
Best for: practising forecasting for free, or asking questions no real-money market lists.
- Money
- Play money only, with no cash-out
- Deposit options
- Free M1,000 of play money at sign-up and Mana purchases by card or in USDC and other crypto
- States
- Play money is open in every state; prize drawings are void in seven states and D.C.
Not in our app ranking, so not scored. The facts above are from what Manifold Markets publishes.
Open Manifold MarketsHow we make money
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Is Manifold Markets legit?
Yes, as long as you know what it is: a play-money prediction market. You trade mana, Manifold's own currency, not dollars. Its terms say mana has no cash value and cannot be cashed out.
Manifold Markets, Inc. runs it, and its terms say the company is registered in California. Austin Chen, James Grugett and Stephen Grugett founded it in December 2021.
Grants funded part of its early growth. They include an Astral Codex Ten grant and $1.5 million from the FTX Future Fund. The Survival and Flourishing Fund added more than $340,000.
The founding team has since split. Stephen Grugett now calls himself CEO of MNX and “cofounder emeritus” of Manifold. MNX is a real-money crypto futures exchange that went live on October 13, 2026. Manifold calls MNX a separate company and says Manifold is not going away.
No financial regulator oversees Manifold. Trading on it cannot win you cash. So there is no deposit to lose, and no regulator to complain to either.
Is Manifold Markets safe?
Your money is safe mostly because so little of it is involved. You never deposit cash to trade. Every new account starts with M1,000 of mana for free.
The real-money risk is buying mana. Manifold sells it by card and in crypto, and its terms say all sales are final. Mana you buy cannot be refunded, sold or cashed out.
Your account is not guaranteed either. The terms let Manifold deny access or delete accounts at its sole discretion, without notice. Disputes go to binding arbitration in Delaware, and the terms bar class actions.
Leverage is the trap inside the game. Every account can claim a small interest-free loan each day. Paying members can also take margin loans at 0.03% a day. Losses on borrowed mana can push your balance below zero.
Signing up is light. You can use a Google or Apple account. Identity verification is optional, and Manifold asks for it only to enter prize drawings.
Is Manifold Markets gambling?
Not with real money, on Manifold's own account. Its terms say mana has no cash or redeemable value. You cannot sell it, transfer it for money or withdraw it.
The one real-money piece is the prize drawings, which pay winners in USDC. Each drawing offers one free entry, and extra entries cost mana. They are void in seven states, Washington, D.C., and 24 countries.
Manifold did run cash games once. From late 2024 to March 28, 2025, sweepstakes markets paid out in “sweepcash” you could redeem for money. That program is over.
It can still feel like gambling. The trade button says “Bet”, and daily streaks and leverage reward coming back. If you want real stakes, use a regulated exchange and set a limit first.
Manifold Markets complaints and controversies
We found no hack and no case of users losing cash on Manifold. The complaints are about rules that keep changing, and about how markets resolve.
- The 2024 pivot ends mana donations Manifold stopped letting users donate mana to charity at 100 mana per $1, honoring requests until May 15, 2024. It also raised the purchase rate to M1,000 per $1. It said cashing out all mana would cost it $1.2 million. Source
- The Manifest conference row The Guardian tied some speakers at Manifest 2024, a conference Manifold co-hosted, to scientific racism. Manifold's Austin Chen said the event had “no specific views on eugenics or race & IQ.” The row was about the conference, not the markets. Source
- Sweepstakes shut down Manifold said sweepcash had missed its usage goals. Sweepcash markets closing after March 3, 2025 were resolved at their current probability. Balances left after March 28 became mana at 100 mana per sweepcash. Source
The steady complaint is resolution. The creator of a market usually decides its result, and creators may trade in their own markets. A careless or biased creator can resolve a market wrongly.
Manifold's backstop is its moderators, active users picked by its community manager. Tag @mods on a market to reach them. If the creator was active in the last month, you first wait 24 hours for a reply.
Mods can correct a blatantly wrong result. If a resolution is merely debatable, they leave the final call to the creator. That is a lighter check than a rulebook enforced by a regulated exchange.
How Manifold Markets works
Every market is a question, and every answer trades as shares priced in mana. A winning share pays M1 when the market resolves, and a losing share pays nothing. Your order fills against other users' limit orders first, then against an automated market maker.
Manifold charges no fee on trades. So 100 Yes shares bought at 40% cost M40, and pay M100 if the answer is Yes.
Anyone can create a market and write its rules. The creator pays mana to seed the market, then usually resolves it. Manifold's own advice is to check that the criteria are clear before you trade.
Loans add leverage. Every account can claim a small interest-free loan each day, worth 1% to 3% of its positions. Free accounts can reach 2x leverage, and Premium members 4x.
Manifold Markets fees
No fee on trades; creating a market costs mana, from M100 for a yes/no question, and that mana becomes its liquidity.
Manifold dropped its trading fees on September 30, 2024, according to its public code. On October 27, 2026, the code still set the trading fee to zero. The price still moves as you buy, so large orders cost more per share.
Creating a market is the main cost. A yes/no market costs M100, M1,000, M10,000 or M100,000, and all of it seeds liquidity. More liquidity makes the price harder for one trader to push. A poll costs M10.
Other costs are optional. Margin loans charge 0.03% a day. Memberships are paid in mana, and Pro costs M2,500 a month. Shop items run from M150 for a streak freeze up to M1,000,000.
The only dollar price is for mana itself. Manifold's code prices card purchases at M100 per $1, and crypto buyers can get bonus mana.
Does Manifold Markets pay out? Mana, prizes and charity
Payouts are in mana, never cash. Each winning share pays M1 when the creator or a moderator resolves the market. If a market is cancelled as N/A, everyone gets their mana back.
Mana cannot be withdrawn. Real money reaches users only through prize drawings, paid in USDC to a crypto wallet. In May 2026, Manifold said a $100 drawing ran every day; its second drawing had a $10,000 pool.
Charity works the same way now. Direct mana donations ended in May 2024. Instead, mana buys entries in a Charity Giveaway, and one drawn entry picks which charity Manifold pays.
| Use | Allowed? | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Cash out to a bank, card or wallet | No | The terms say mana has no cash or redeemable value |
| Sell or transfer it for money | No | Barred by the terms |
| Donate to a charity you pick | Not directly | Direct donations at M100 per $1 ended in May 2024 |
| Enter the Charity Giveaway | Yes | Manifold gives $1,100 to one drawn charity on December 14, 2026 |
| Enter prize drawings | Yes | One free entry per drawing; extra entries cost mana; prizes in USDC |
| Shop items and memberships | Yes | Cosmetics, streak freezes, memberships and merch |
What you can trade on Manifold Markets
Almost anything, because users write the questions. The site groups markets under politics, technology, sports, culture and business. Personal questions, such as a user's own goals, are allowed too.
Manifold also runs play-money perpetuals: leveraged long or short trades on a live number, with no expiry. On October 28, 2026, it listed 27 of them, priced from MNX. Each one links to the same contract on MNX for real money.
Prices are public. Anyone can see every market's probability without an account, and Manifold publishes an API. It says its forecasts land within 4 percentage points of the true probability on average.
Where Manifold Markets is available
The play-money site is open in every US state and most of the world. Its terms set the minimum age at 13, with parental permission for minors.
Prize drawings are narrower. You must be 18 or older. They are void in Delaware, Idaho, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, New York, Washington and Washington, D.C.
Ontario and 24 countries are excluded from the drawings too, including Australia, Germany and the Netherlands. Faking your location with a VPN can disqualify you. Players in those places can still use the rest of Manifold.
Want real money in the US? Check whether prediction markets are legal in your state first.
Not legal advice.
Is there a Manifold Markets app?
Yes. Manifold Markets, Inc. publishes an iPhone app. On October 28, 2026, it was rated 4.5 from 145 ratings on the US App Store. An Android app is on Google Play. Both were last updated on August 31, 2026.
The website does everything the apps do. Developers can also use Manifold's public API to read markets and place trades.
Manifold Markets pros and cons
Pros
- Free to start. Every new account gets M1,000 of mana, and no purchase is needed to play.
- Ask any question. Anyone can create a market, on topics no real-money exchange lists.
- No trading fees. Manifold has charged nothing on trades since September 30, 2024.
- Open almost everywhere. The play-money site works in every US state and most countries.
Cons
- Not real money. Mana cannot be cashed out, sold or donated directly.
- Creators resolve markets. The person who wrote a market usually decides it, and may trade in it.
- Rules keep changing. Fees, charity and cash prizes have each changed more than once since 2024.
- Purchases are final. Mana you buy cannot be refunded, under the terms.
Manifold Markets vs the alternatives
Manifold is the place to practise and to ask odd questions. If you want the same kinds of markets with real money, look elsewhere.
In the US, Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange with politics, economics and sports markets. Polymarket runs large markets on world events, with a separate US app. For small political stakes, read our PredictIt review.
Our ranking of the best prediction markets compares the real-money options open to Americans.
Our verdict: should you use Manifold Markets?
Yes, if you want to learn forecasting without risking money. It is free, it lets you ask almost any question, and it charges no trading fees.
Go in knowing three things. Mana never turns into cash. Creators, not Manifold, usually decide results. And mana you buy is gone for good. Treat any purchase as paying for a game, not funding an account.