Jeremy Bragin
PredictIt
Best for: US political traders who keep stakes under $3,500 a contract.
- Regulator
- CFTC: operates under no-action relief from CFTC staff, not as a registered exchange
- Fee on $100 at 50¢
- $10.00 if it wins, $0 if not
- Minimum deposit
- $10
- Deposit options
- Bank transfer (ACH) and credit card
- States
- No state excluded in its terms; US citizens and resident aliens only, 18 and over
Not in our app ranking, so not scored. The facts above are from what PredictIt publishes.
Open PredictItHow we make money
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Is PredictIt legit?
Yes. PredictIt is a real-money political market that has run since 2014. It also survived a three-year fight with the CFTC to keep running. It is not a registered exchange, though. Its legal footing is a letter from CFTC staff, not a license.
That letter is a “no-action letter.” CFTC staff issued it on October 29, 2014, to Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand. Staff said they would not recommend enforcement against a small, not-for-profit market run for research. The conditions included political markets only and a cap on each trader's stake.
The university no longer runs it. A CFTC letter dated July 14, 2025, let it hand PredictIt to the Prediction Market Research Consortium. That is a US not-for-profit, and a board of academics decides which markets to list. Aristotle International, its longtime market servicer, still handles day-to-day operations. PredictIt's terms name Aristotle as the clearing house that checks IDs, clears trades and holds your cash.
Aristotle also won its own CFTC exchange and clearinghouse licenses in September 2025. It sold both to Underdog in March 2026. PredictIt was not part of that sale, and it still runs on the no-action letter.
Here is what that means for you. PredictIt's own terms say it is not regulated by the CFTC or any other authority. So the customer-fund rules that bind exchanges like Kalshi do not bind PredictIt. The relief also belongs to the consortium alone; it does not pass to a buyer.
Is PredictIt safe? How your money is held
Your cash goes to Aristotle, which the terms call the clearing house. Aristotle keeps it in a bank account in its own name, pooled with other users' money. It records your share on a separate ledger and holds it “on trust” for you.
Two details matter. Aristotle keeps any interest the pooled cash earns. And since PredictIt is not a registered exchange, federal rules on segregating customer funds do not apply. Your protection is the trust promise in the terms, not a regulator's rulebook.
Opening an account takes your name, address and date of birth. Aristotle verifies your age and identity. Change your address later, and you verify again. Once your profits pass the IRS reporting limit, you must add a Social Security or taxpayer ID number. PredictIt sends Form 1099 to US residents with $600 or more of net profit in a year.
The terms carry two warnings worth reading. The site has “no controls on market manipulation or trading on the basis of ‘inside information.’” And PredictIt can suspend or close any account at any time, without explanation. If it closes yours, the remaining balance is paid by check.
Is PredictIt gambling?
PredictIt says no. Its terms call it “an experimental research and educational facility,” not an investment market or a gambling facility. In your wallet, the line is thin. You put money on a political outcome, and a wrong call loses it.
You trade against other users, not the house. PredictIt runs an order book and earns its money from a fee on profits.
We found no state that has sued PredictIt or ordered it to stop. Minnesota is the one to watch. A 2026 law there makes running a prediction market a felony. A federal judge blocked it on July 27, 2026, as applied to CFTC-registered exchanges. PredictIt is not one, and we found no statement from it on the law. Every case is on our prediction market legal tracker.
PredictIt complaints and its fight with the CFTC
Search for a PredictIt lawsuit and you will mostly find one case. Traders, academics, Aristotle and PredictIt sued the CFTC, and they won. Our searches found no customer lawsuit against PredictIt and no state enforcement action. The record below is what we could verify.
- Election-night outage PredictIt went down in the early hours after the 2020 presidential election. Prices had swung by the time it came back. Hundreds of users complained, and some threatened legal action. Source
- The CFTC withdraws PredictIt's relief CFTC staff said Victoria University had not run the market within the letter's terms. They gave no specifics. They ordered every contract closed by February 15, 2023. Source
- The Fifth Circuit keeps PredictIt open Traders, academics, Aristotle and PredictIt had sued in Texas in September 2022. The appeals court found the withdrawal likely “arbitrary and capricious.” It ordered a preliminary injunction while the case went on. Source
- Final judgment, and a new letter CFTC staff amended the 2014 letter on July 14, 2025. Eight days later, a federal court in Texas entered final judgment for PredictIt. PredictIt says the judgment also protects it against future efforts to close it. Source
The 2020 outage still carries a lesson. On a busy election night, PredictIt can be slow just when prices move most. Its FAQ says offers wait in a queue when trading is heavy, so the price on screen may be gone.
If you dispute a result, the terms ask for 30 days of informal talks first. After that, claims go to binding arbitration, and class actions are waived. New users can opt out of arbitration by mail within 30 days.
How PredictIt works
Every PredictIt market is a political question, and each possible answer is a contract. Shares trade between 1¢ and 99¢. A correct share pays $1 when the market closes, and a wrong one pays nothing. Other traders take the other side through PredictIt's order book.
| Cost of the contracts | $40.00 |
| Fee on a win (10% of the gain) | $6.00 |
| Total you pay | $40.00 |
| Paid out if the answer is Yes | $100.00, a profit of $54.00 |
| Paid out if the answer is No | $0.00, a loss of $40.00 |
The fee in the example is PredictIt's 10% cut of the $60 profit. You pay it only if you win. Sell early at 70¢ instead, and the fee is 10% of your $30 gain, or $3.00.
Two rules are unusual. You cannot hold Yes and No in the same contract at once. And in markets with several candidates, PredictIt debits only your worst-case loss across the market. So hedged positions tie up less cash.
Your stake in any one contract is capped at $3,500, the federal limit on a campaign contribution. The cap counts what you paid, not what your shares are worth later. It moves with that federal limit, which is adjusted every two years.
PredictIt fees, with the arithmetic
10% of the profit each time a share is sold or settles above what you paid; nothing on a break-even or losing trade. On $100 at 50¢, which buys 200 contracts, that comes to $10.00 if it wins, $0 if not.
The fee is charged trade by trade, not on your net result. A loss on one contract does not reduce the fee on a win in another. So an active trader can pay fees in a year that ends in a loss.
Moving money is now cheap. Since September 23, 2026, ACH deposits and withdrawals by ACH or check are free. Before that, PredictIt took 5% of every withdrawal. Credit card deposits cost 3%, but one card deposit per user, up to $1,000, is free.
One fee catches people who forget an account. After 12 months without a login, PredictIt charges $2 a month while cash remains. Logging in stops it.
Does PredictIt pay out? Settlement and withdrawals
Yes. When a result is in, PredictIt suspends trading and checks it against the market's rules. That review usually takes under 48 hours. Each winning share is then redeemed at $1, less the 10% fee on your profit.
PredictIt decides results itself, under each market's written rules. It does not close a market just because one outcome looks likely. For elections, it weighs certification, recounts, lawsuits and concessions, among other factors.
Withdrawals go out by ACH or check. Cash you deposit cannot be withdrawn until 30 days after the deposit date. PredictIt can also ask for more ID before releasing funds. It publishes no processing time.
| Step | PredictIt fee | Rule to know |
|---|---|---|
| Deposit by bank transfer (ACH) | Free | You need at least $10 to start trading |
| Deposit by credit card | 3% | One card deposit per user, up to $1,000, is free |
| Withdraw by ACH or check | Free since September 23, 2026 | Not until 30 days after the deposit |
| Account with no login for 12 months | $2 a month | Stops once you log in |
What you can trade on PredictIt
Politics only. The CFTC relief limits PredictIt to political events and rules out questions on war, terrorism or assassination. That still covers elections, nominations, court decisions, bills, executive actions and international agreements.
On October 28, 2026, its public data feed listed 229 open markets and 739 contracts. Most were about the November 3 midterms: House and Senate races, governors and seat counts. Others covered the 2028 nominations, Israel's election and possible cabinet departures.
A Weekly section holds short-term questions, such as approval-rating averages. There are no sports, crypto or economics markets. Prices are public, and a free data feed updates them every 60 seconds for non-commercial use.
Where PredictIt is available
PredictIt is for “US Persons” aged 18 or over. Its terms define that as US citizens living anywhere, plus resident aliens. So an American living abroad can sign up, while a foreign resident cannot.
Its terms exclude no state, but they require you to follow the laws where you are. Minnesota's 2026 ban is the open question, as covered above.
Each person gets one account, and employees and contractors of PredictIt and Aristotle cannot trade. Check whether prediction markets are legal in your state before you deposit.
Not legal advice.
Is there a PredictIt app?
No. We found no PredictIt app on the App Store, and the PredictIt-named apps on Google Play come from other developers. You trade at predictit.org in a desktop or phone browser.
Support is by email at support@predictit.org, or through the contact form on its support page.
PredictIt pros and cons
Pros
- Fees only on profits. PredictIt keeps 10% of each winning trade's profit and charges nothing on a loss.
- Free withdrawals. Since September 23, 2026, ACH deposits and ACH or check withdrawals cost nothing.
- Deep political menu. 229 open markets on October 28, 2026, down to single House districts.
- Its legal fight is over. A July 2025 federal judgment ended the CFTC's attempt to close it.
Cons
- Not a registered exchange. It runs on CFTC staff no-action relief, and its terms say it is unregulated.
- $3,500 cap per contract. Fine for hobby stakes, too small for large positions.
- 30-day hold on deposits. Cash you deposit cannot be withdrawn for 30 days.
- Politics only, web only. No sports, crypto or economics markets, and no mobile app.
PredictIt vs the alternatives
If you want more than politics, or bigger stakes, use a registered exchange. Kalshi lists elections alongside sports, economics and more, under full CFTC oversight. Polymarket also runs a CFTC-regulated exchange for US users.
The fees differ in shape. Kalshi charges a fee on each trade, win or lose. PredictIt takes 10% only of profits, which suits traders who buy and hold.
To practice forecasting without cash, Manifold uses play money. Our ranking of the best prediction markets leaves PredictIt out, because it is not a registered exchange.
Our verdict: should you use PredictIt?
Do you follow US politics closely and trade in hundreds of dollars? Then PredictIt is a legitimate, simple place to do it. Withdrawals are now free, and you pay fees only on winning trades.
Know the limits first. It is not a regulated exchange, so your cash relies on Aristotle's trust promise. Stakes are capped at $3,500 a contract, deposits wait 30 days before withdrawal, and there is no app. For larger stakes, or anything beyond politics, use a registered exchange such as Kalshi.