Jeremy Bragin
Predict.fun
Best for: crypto traders outside the US who want gasless BNB Chain markets.
- Fee on $100 at 50¢
- $2.00
- Minimum deposit
- Not published
- Deposit options
- USDT on BNB Chain and USDC or USDT bridged from other chains
- States
- Closed to US residents and to anyone located in the US
Not in our app ranking, so not scored. The facts above are from what Predict.fun publishes.
Open Predict.funHow we make money
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Is Predict.fun legit?
Yes, in the sense that matters first: it is a working market, with real money and known backers. It is not regulated. No financial regulator licenses Predict.fun, and its terms send every dispute to private arbitration in the British Virgin Islands.
The operator is PDF Labs Limited, the company named in its terms. Predict began on the Blast network in 2024. It moved to BNB Chain in December 2025, when Binance founder Changpeng Zhao announced it on X. YZi Labs, formerly Binance Labs, incubated it, and Susquehanna Crypto later joined YZi in a follow-on round. Its founder, known as Dingaling, was head of research at Binance.
The money is real. DefiLlama counts $3.6 billion traded since launch, $401 million of it in the last 30 days. On October 28, 2026, users held about $10 million on its BNB Chain contracts.
Here is what unregulated means for you. Nobody supervises how Predict runs its markets. No compensation scheme backs your balance. A dispute goes to arbitration, not to court, and the terms waive class actions.
Is Predict.fun safe? How your money is held
Predict.fun does not hold your money the way an exchange does. Sign up with email, Google or X, and it creates a Smart Wallet for you. That is a smart-contract account on BNB Chain that holds your USDT and your shares. Predict says it does not have custody of those funds.
A second, embedded wallet signs for the Smart Wallet. Predict's login provider manages that signing key for you, and your settings let you export it. Turn on multi-factor authentication, and the key needs your second factor before it signs anything.
That design moves the risk; it does not remove it. Whoever controls the signing key can move the money, and a transfer on the blockchain cannot be reversed. That is what users reported in October: transfers out of their own wallets, not a raid on a shared pool.
Accounts set up for API or bot trading work differently. They can make an outside wallet their trading address and pay their own network fees. Predict has not yet said which accounts were hit, or how. The site it blames was its API documentation.
Settlement carries its own, smaller risk. Most markets resolve through UMA's Optimistic Oracle. Someone proposes the answer, anyone can dispute it during a challenge window, and UMA token holders vote on disputes. The process is public, but it is a vote, not a court.
Protect yourself the usual way. Turn on MFA. Keep only what you are trading in the wallet. Never sign in through a link sent to you by message. Fake claim pages multiply around a token launch, and Predict published the plan for its PREDICT token on October 28.
Is Predict.fun gambling?
Predict calls itself a prediction market, and you trade with other users, not against the house. Your money still rides on an outcome, and a wrong call loses it.
In the US, prediction markets are legal as derivatives on exchanges the CFTC regulates, such as Kalshi. Predict.fun has no such registration, and it does not serve Americans.
Elsewhere, the label depends on local law. Predict's terms list the countries it bars; they do not say where its markets count as gambling.
The October 2026 Predict.fun hack, and other complaints
We found no security incident at Predict.fun before October 2026. Then users started reporting empty wallets.
- Users report drained wallets Crypto analyst Dethective said about $5,000 was taken from their account. Another analyst, Naeven, traced 19 victims and about 105 ETH, roughly $260,000. The funds were bridged to Ethereum and sent to the Tornado Cash mixer. Source
- Predict confirms about 400,000 USDT taken Predict said a small number of users lost about 400,000 USDT through unauthorized transfers. Its preliminary finding: its API documentation site, hosted by a third party, may have been compromised. It took the site offline and promised to fully reimburse affected users and publish a post-mortem. Source
As of October 28, 2026, Predict had not published the post-mortem or confirmed any refund paid. Its documentation sites, which also hold its terms and fee schedule, were offline. predict.fun itself stayed up, with markets open.
Two questions stay open until the post-mortem. How did the attackers get signing power over users' wallets? And did anyone beyond the first reports lose money? We will update this review when Predict answers them.
How Predict.fun works
Every market is a question, and every answer trades as shares priced between 1¢ and 99¢ in USDT. A share in the right answer pays 1 USDT when the market settles. A share in the wrong one pays nothing. Predict runs an order book, so you trade with other users, not against the house.
| Cost of the contracts | $40.00 |
| Taker fee (0.02 × 100 × 0.40) | $0.80 |
| Total you pay | $40.80 |
| Paid out if the answer is Yes | $100.00, a profit of $59.20 |
| Paid out if the answer is No | $0.00, a loss of $40.80 |
The fee in the example is Predict's taker rate: 2% of the price, because 40¢ is the cheaper side. You can sell before settlement at the best bid on the book. Placing an order is an off-chain signature that Predict's order book matches; deposits, withdrawals and settlement happen on BNB Chain.
On some markets, the USDT behind open positions also earns yield through Venus, a lending protocol. Predict keeps 10% of that yield, never any of your stake.
Predict.fun fees, with the arithmetic
Takers pay 0.02 × shares × the lower of the price and 1 − price; makers pay nothing. On $100 at 50¢, which buys 200 contracts, that comes to $2.00.
In plain terms: buying at 50¢ or below costs 2% of what you spend. Above 50¢ the fee shrinks, because it is charged on the other side's price. So 100 shares at 90¢ cost $90.00 plus a $0.20 fee, not $1.80.
Join through someone's invite link, and your taker fees are 10% lower for as long as you trade. The person who invited you earns 10% of your fees. Makers pay nothing, and on some markets they earn a share of the taker's fee as a rebate.
Moving money costs little. Predict charges no deposit or withdrawal fee, and the Smart Wallet covers the network fee. Deposits from other chains lose about 0.1% to bridging, and a third-party on-ramp may charge its own fee. The smallest order is 1 USDT.
Does Predict.fun pay out? Settlement and withdrawals
Each winning share pays 1 USDT once its market resolves. Most markets resolve through UMA's oracle, after a window in which anyone can dispute the proposed answer. Short crypto and stock Up/Down markets settle on Chainlink price data.
A withdrawal is a transfer of USDT out of your Smart Wallet on BNB Chain, with no Predict fee. Predict publishes no withdrawal time or limit. We found no reports of withdrawals held back. The October complaints are about money taken out without permission, not money kept in.
One rule can freeze you. Trade from a restricted country, even through a VPN, and its terms let Predict put your wallet in close-only mode.
What you can trade on Predict.fun
Predict lists markets on sports, politics, crypto, esports, finance, tech, the economy, culture and the weather.
Two formats stand out. Up/Down markets on Bitcoin, Ether and BNB settle every 5 or 15 minutes. Since September 23, 2026, 15-minute Up/Down markets on stocks have run on Chainlink prices. Bond markets are near-certain outcomes priced at 98¢ or 99¢: a 1% to 2% return that is not risk-free.
Prices are public: anyone can read the order book on predict.fun without an account. CoinStats does not compare Predict's prices with other venues.
Where Predict.fun is available
Not in the US. Signing up means stating that you are not a US person and not in the US. Its terms also bar anyone who lives in or is located in nine more places. They are the United Kingdom, France, Ontario, Singapore, Poland, Thailand, Australia, Belgium and Taiwan. Sanctioned countries and “any other restricted territory” are out too.
Using a VPN to get around the list breaks the terms. Predict can then put your wallet in close-only mode, which lets you exit positions but not open new ones.
In the US, the regulated choices are Kalshi and Polymarket US. Check whether prediction markets are legal in your state first.
Not legal advice.
Is there a Predict.fun app?
Not a standalone one: we found no Predict.fun app on the App Store. You trade on predict.fun in a browser, or inside two crypto wallets. Binance Wallet builds Predict in and covers the network fee, and Trust Wallet offers it inside the app.
Predict.fun pros and cons
Pros
- Low, simple fees. Makers pay nothing, and takers pay at most 2% of the cheaper side's price.
- No gas, no seed phrase. The Smart Wallet covers network fees, and sign-up takes an email, Google or X account.
- Yield on open positions. On eligible markets, the USDT behind your shares earns yield through Venus; Predict keeps 10% of it.
- A refund pledge. Predict has promised to fully reimburse users hit by the October 2026 drain.
Cons
- The October 2026 drain. About 400,000 USDT left users' wallets, and the cause and refunds are not yet confirmed.
- No regulator. No licence, arbitration in the British Virgin Islands and a class-action waiver.
- Closed to the US. And to the UK, France, Australia and several other countries.
- Crypto only. You fund it in USDT or USDC; there are no bank or card deposits of its own.
Predict.fun vs the alternatives
Outside the US, the closest alternative is Polymarket. It is also crypto, also an order book and settles through the same UMA oracle, with far more trading. In the US, use a regulated exchange such as Kalshi. Our ranking of the best prediction markets scores the apps open to Americans.
Our verdict: should you use Predict.fun?
If you are in the US or another restricted country, no. Its terms bar you, and a VPN breaks them.
Elsewhere, it is a credible crypto market with low fees, gasless trading and yield on open positions. But until Predict explains the October drain and shows the refunds paid, treat its Smart Wallet like any hot wallet. Turn on MFA, keep only what you trade, and withdraw the rest.