Jeremy Bragin
Underdog Predict
Prediction Picks inside the Underdog fantasy app, routed to UDX, Kalshi or CDNA
2.6/ 5
CoinStats scoreBest for: Underdog fantasy players.
- Regulator
- CFTC: offers event contracts through UDM, LLC, a CFTC-registered futures commission merchant, routing to UDX, its own exchange, and others
- Fee on $100 at 50¢
- $2.00 + exchange fee
- Minimum deposit
- $10
- Deposit options
- Debit card, credit card, Apple Pay and Trustly bank transfer
- Settlement and payout
- Most single-game markets settle within hours, and payouts typically arrive within 24 hours.
- States
- Open in 46 states and DC; not in AZ, MI, NV or NY
Scored on our published method, from what Underdog Predict publishes.
Open Underdog PredictHow we make money
CoinStats may earn a commission if you open an account through links on this page. No venue pays for its score: it comes from the same published method, applied to every app.
Is Underdog Predict legit?
Yes. Underdog Predict is a federally regulated product, not a sweepstakes app. It has four layers: the app, a broker, the exchanges and their clearinghouses. The last three answer to the CFTC. The app and its wallet belong to Underdog's fantasy company.
The broker is UDM, LLC, which does business as Underdog Predict. It registered with the CFTC as a futures commission merchant on January 9, 2026, and joined the National Futures Association. NFA's BASIC database lists no regulatory actions against it.
The exchange is UDX. The CFTC designated it, as Aristotle Exchange DCM, on September 5, 2025. Its clearinghouse was registered the same day. Underdog bought both in March 2026 and opened trading on July 18, 2026.
UDX is not the only venue. Underdog also sends markets to Kalshi, where UDM is a clearing member. A third exchange, Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, powered its first markets in September 2025. The app shows one market per game and picks the exchange for you.
That settles “legit.” It covers less than most people assume. Regulation does not promise a profit, and it does not settle state law. Six states are in court with Underdog. Its owner is also set to change. IG Group agreed on July 30, 2026 to buy Underdog for up to about $1.3 billion.
Is Underdog Predict safe? How your money is held
Start with where your money sits, because it moves. Every deposit lands in your Underdog wallet, run by Underdog Sports, LLC, the fantasy company. When you trade, money moves from there into your Predict account.
Money in the Predict account at UDM falls under CFTC segregation rules. UDM keeps customer funds at Banc of California and says it does not invest them. UDX says member funds on deposit with it sit in segregated accounts at the same bank.
The wallet is the weak spot. UDM's account agreement lets it sweep unused cash back to the wallet at the end of each trading day. There, CFTC protections do not apply. The wallet is not FDIC or SIPC insured, and in a bankruptcy you could be an unsecured creditor.
The sweep is not theoretical. UDM's segregation report for September 24, 2026 lists no customer cash at all. It shows only open positions, worth about $1.06 million. You can ask support to switch the sweep off.
Getting in takes more checks than a fantasy account. Prediction markets require your Social Security number and a government ID. You also answer questions on your job, income and trading experience, which regulation requires. You must be 18 or older.
Withdrawals need a one-time code sent by text in the app, or an email confirmation on the web. Changing your email takes a two-factor step too.
Is Underdog Predict gambling?
Legally, Underdog says no. Its contracts are derivatives under federal law, supervised by the CFTC rather than state gaming boards. In court, it argues that exchanges and brokers “are not bookmakers” and take no positions against customers.
In the app, the line is thinner. Predict sits beside pick'em in one app and one wallet. It uses sportsbook words: picks, entries, parlays. A Combo mixes contracts with fantasy picks, and 10% of that entry goes to the fantasy side.
Who takes the other side? Another trader, matched by the exchange. UDX also runs a market maker program. Its participant agreement warns that the program's tools “may give market makers a trading advantage.” UDM says it does no proprietary trading beyond small system tests.
States do not accept the federal label. Underdog's CEO says seven states made it choose between fantasy licenses and these contracts. Appeals courts are split on the same question for Kalshi. Every case is on our prediction market legal tracker.
Underdog Predict lawsuits and complaints
Search for Underdog and the loudest results are about fantasy, not Predict. A Reddit thread calls it a scam. Trustpilot scores underdogfantasy.com 1.3 out of 5, with recent reviews about support and parlay settlements. The legal record below is real, but read it by product. Most of it is at an early stage.
- A California class action over fantasy A player says Underdog's Drafts and Pick'em contests are illegal gambling in California. He seeks to recover money for a class of Californians. Underdog asked the court to send the case to arbitration. The case has been paused repeatedly since January 2026. Source
- Underdog sues five states Underdog's exchange and broker sued officials in Massachusetts, Ohio, Wisconsin, New Mexico and Washington. They ask the courts to rule that federal law shields their contracts from state gambling laws. Source
- Fantasy dropped in seven states Underdog ended fantasy contests in Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, New Jersey, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Its CEO said those states made it choose between fantasy licenses and CFTC products. Prediction Picks stay open in all but Michigan. Source
- Connecticut's cease-and-desist Underdog sued Connecticut's attorney general and gaming regulators too. Its complaint attaches a cease-and-desist letter the state sent Underdog Predict. Underdog still lists Connecticut as open for Prediction Picks. Source
Two more suits came from firms named Kentucky Gambling Recovery and South Carolina Gambling Recovery, each against several apps. A federal judge dismissed the Kentucky case on August 18, 2026. We found no ruling yet in South Carolina.
For Predict users, the warning that matters is Underdog's own. If a state wins in court, open sports positions there “may become untradeable.”
How Underdog Predict works
Each Underdog Predict market is a yes-or-no contract on a sports outcome, such as a winner or a total. A winning contract pays $1, and a losing one pays nothing. So the price reads as a probability. In Underdog's own example, 65¢ implies about a 65% chance.
| Cost of the contracts | $40.00 |
| Commission (1¢ a contract), plus the exchange’s fee | $1.00 |
| Total you pay | $41.00 plus the exchange fee |
| Paid out if the answer is Yes | $100.00, a profit of $59.00, less the exchange fee |
| Paid out if the answer is No | $0.00, a loss of $41.00 plus the exchange fee |
The table leaves the exchange fee open because it depends on the venue. On a UDX market, those 100 contracts at 40¢ add a $1.68 taker fee, for $42.68 in all. The fee section has the formula.
You can get out before the final whistle. Prediction Cash Out sells your position at the current market price, if someone will take the other side. Late in a game, that buyer can vanish. Entries cannot be canceled.
Parlays combine up to eight picks, and every one must win. Combos add two or more fantasy picks to your contracts. If a parlay leg is canceled or a player sits out, that leg settles at a fair market price instead.
Underdog Predict fees, with the arithmetic
1¢ a contract on each side, plus the exchange’s fee. On $100 at 50¢, which buys 200 contracts, that comes to $2.00 + exchange fee.
The exchange fee depends on where the market lives. On UDX, takers pay 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded to the nearest cent. On $100 at 50¢, that adds $3.50, for $5.50 in fees in all.
Resting orders on UDX pay a quarter of that rate, 0.0175, and only when they fill. Markets routed to Kalshi carry Kalshi's own fee schedule instead.
The flat commission hits longshots hardest. On UDX at 10¢, 100 contracts cost $10 and $1.63 in fees. Sell early and you pay the commission and the exchange fee again.
Underdog charges no fee on credit card deposits, and withdrawals are always free. One charge to know: after 18 months with no activity, Underdog may take $4 a month from your balance.
Does Underdog Predict pay out? Withdrawal times and holds
Yes. When a market settles, each winning contract pays $1. Most single-game markets settle within a few hours of the final result. Underdog says payouts are typically processed within 24 hours of settlement.
Getting cash out is slower. Every withdrawal leaves from your Underdog wallet, not from the Predict account. Underdog's standard processing time is 48 to 72 hours. Then your bank or payment app adds its own time.
Withdrawals are free, with a $10 minimum unless your balance is lower. PayPal and Venmo cannot fund predictions, but they can receive withdrawals if you once deposited with them. Cancel and resubmit, and the clock restarts.
Underdog may also hold or cancel a withdrawal. Its examples include withdrawing a deposit with no play, or paying out to someone else's account. If your profits reach its tax-reporting threshold, it needs your tax details before paying out.
| Method | Funds predictions | Receives withdrawals | After processing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Visa or Mastercard debit card | Yes | Yes, if you deposited with it | Typically within 24 hours |
| Credit card | Yes | No | Not offered |
| Apple Pay | Yes | Visa debit cards only, after an Apple Pay deposit | Not published |
| Trustly bank transfer | Yes | Yes, no prior deposit needed | Instant, or 1 to 3 business days |
| PayPal | No | Yes, if you deposited with it | About 48 hours |
| Venmo | No | Yes, if you deposited with it | Not published |
What you can trade on Underdog Predict
Underdog Predict is sports only. Its help center lists the NFL, NBA, WNBA, NHL, MLB, college football and basketball, and soccer. MMA, esports, tennis and season futures are there too. Golf has its own settlement rules but is missing from that list. Player props such as rushing yards are offered wherever Predictions are available.
UDX's public reports say the same. Its file for September 26, 2026 lists only sports contracts, led by college football and tennis. IG Group, its buyer, has said it may consider non-sports contracts later.
Prices stay inside the app. Underdog publishes daily UDX data and running totals. Its count stood at $6.18 billion in notional volume on September 26, 2026. There is no live price feed, so its markets are not in our live prediction market odds.
Where Underdog Predict is available
Underdog Predict is open in 46 states and DC. It is closed in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and New York, and in US territories. What counts is where you stand, not where you live. Travel to a closed state and you cannot trade or cash out, though open positions still settle.
The map moved fast. In April 2026 the list held 31 states and DC. By late September it held 46. Underdog began offering contracts in Massachusetts on September 4, 2026. Days later it ended fantasy contests in seven states that objected to offering both.
It is also in court over that map. On September 8 it sued Massachusetts, Ohio, Wisconsin, New Mexico and Washington. On September 15 it sued Connecticut. Its own disclosure warns that positions could be closed early if states win.
Some markets come from Kalshi, and court orders against Kalshi can reach those too. See Kalshi's state-by-state picture, and check the rules where you live.
Not legal advice.
The Underdog app and support
On the App Store, Underdog Predict rates 4.8 from 321,758 ratings. On Google Play it rates 4.6 from 33.6K. Both were read on September 25, 2026.
Those scores rate the whole Underdog app, fantasy included, not Predict alone. It runs on iOS, Android and the web, with Predict in the same wallet as pick'em.
Support comes through chat, in the app or on the web, or by email. Underdog's help center lists no phone line.
Underdog Predict pros and cons
Pros
- Regulated broker and exchange. UDM is a CFTC-registered broker, and UDX is a CFTC-designated exchange with its own clearinghouse.
- Fees are published. A 1¢ commission per contract, plus UDX's fee formula, both posted on its legal pages.
- Cash out before the end. Prediction Cash Out sells your position at the market price, when a buyer is there.
- Open in 46 states and DC. Including California, Texas and Florida, with eligibility checked by your location.
- Filings in the open. UDM posts daily segregation reports, monthly financial filings and audited statements.
Cons
- Idle cash can lose CFTC protection. Unused cash may be swept to the fantasy wallet, which is not insured or CFTC-regulated.
- Sports only. No politics, economics or crypto markets, and no public live prices.
- Fees stack. Commission plus exchange fee on every trade, charged again when you sell early.
- A contested state map. Underdog is suing six states, and positions there could be closed early if states win.
- A new owner coming. IG Group's purchase awaits US approvals, expected late 2026 or early 2027.
Underdog Predict vs the alternatives
Underdog Predict ranks fifteenth of 15 apps in our ranking of prediction market apps, at 2.6 out of 5. Its fit is narrow: people who already play on Underdog and want sports contracts in the same wallet.
For the exchange behind many of its markets, read our Kalshi review. Kalshi lists every category we track and publishes its prices. Sports fans can also compare DraftKings and FanDuel, which run prediction apps of their own.
Our verdict: is Underdog Predict worth it?
Underdog Predict is legit. It is regulated at the broker and at its own exchange. Its fees are published, and it pays winners in dollars.
The weak points are specific. Unused cash can drift back to a fantasy wallet with no CFTC protection. Fees stack, and they come again when you sell early. And its state map is being fought over in six federal courts.
If you already play on Underdog, it is a short step to sports contracts. Check whether prediction markets are legal in your state first.