Polymarket Elon Musk # tweets September 29 - October 6, 2026 odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is 240-259, at 46%. The market settles by Oct 6, 2026, and $306K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 46¢ reads as a 46% chance. We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet, so there is no second price.
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 240-259 | 46% | 46¢ | $30K | Trade |
| 220-239 | 44% | 44¢ | $27K | Trade |
| 260-279 | 7% | 7¢ | $36K | Trade |
| 200-219 | 2% | 2¢ | $89K | Trade |
| 280-299 | 1% | 1¢ | $27K | Trade |
| 300-319 | <1% | <1¢ | $20K | Trade |
| 180-199 | – | – | $68K | Trade |
| 320-339 | – | – | $6K | Trade |
| 340-359 | – | – | $1K | Trade |
| 360-379 | – | – | $0 | Trade |
Show 16 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 380-399 | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| 400-419 | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| 420-439 | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| 440-459 | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| 460-479 | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| 480-499 | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| 500+ | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| 20-39Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| <20Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| 40-59Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| 60-79Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| 80-99Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| 100-119Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| 120-139Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| 140-159Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| 160-179Final | 0% | 0¢ | $1K |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 46¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 29 12:00 PM ET to October 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Scheduled resolution: Oct 6, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 46¢ for 240-259 right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Elon Musk # tweets September 29 - October 6, 2026?
On Polymarket, the favourite is 240-259, at 46%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.