Kalshi Time's Person of the Year for 2026 odds
On Kalshi, the busiest line, Zohran Mamdani, is at 28%. The market settles by Jan 1, 2027, and $9K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 28¢ reads as a 28% chance. Polymarket and Polymarket US list it too, and we compare the prices below.
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Also on Polymarket: Polymarket's page
Kalshi · odds · updated
Also priced on Polymarket and Polymarket US: compare them
12 of these outcomes are priced on Polymarket and Polymarket US too: the favourite is compared below, and each outcome links its own comparison.
Kalshi odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zohran Mamdani compare | 28% | 28¢ | $4K | Trade |
| AI | 7% | 7¢ | $1K | Trade |
| Benjamin Netanyahu compare | 7% | 7¢ | $1K | Trade |
| ChatGPT | 4% | 4¢ | $1K | Trade |
| Mark Carney compare | 16% | 16¢ | $773 | Trade |
| Abdul El-Sayed | 5% | 5¢ | $400 | Trade |
| Jon Ossoff | 3% | 3¢ | $81 | Trade |
| Pope Leo XIV compare | 16% | 16¢ | $58 | Trade |
| Dario Amodei compare | 7% | 7¢ | $53 | Trade |
| Jeremy Hansen | 4% | 4¢ | $24 | Trade |
Show 30 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bad Bunny | 4% | 4¢ | $23 | Trade |
| Donald Trump compare | 9% | 9¢ | $22 | Trade |
| Victor Glover | 5% | 5¢ | $19 | Trade |
| James Talarico compare | 7% | 7¢ | $10 | Trade |
| Reid Wiseman | 5% | 5¢ | $10 | Trade |
| Elon Musk compare | 8% | 8¢ | $1 | Trade |
| Sam Altman | 6% | 6¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Marco Rubio compare | 6% | 6¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Christina Koch compare | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Mojtaba Khamenei | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Xi Jinping | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Shehbaz Sharif | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Susie Wiles | 2% | 2¢ | $11 | Trade |
| Pete Hegseth | 3% | 3¢ | $10 | Trade |
| Taylor Swift | 1% | 1¢ | $2 | Trade |
| Bernie Sanders compare | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Lionel Messi | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Alysa Liu compare | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Péter Magyar | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| James Stephen "Jimmy" Donaldson / MrBeast | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Jerome Powell | 2% | 2¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Christopher Nolan | 2% | 2¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Chris Wright | 2% | 2¢ | $0 | Trade |
| JD Vance | 1% | 1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 1% | 1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Steve Witkoff | 1% | 1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Andy Burnham | 1% | 1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Kevin Warsh | 1% | 1¢ | $0 | Trade |
2 more outcomes are priced on Kalshi: the full board on Kalshi (opens in a new tab).
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Kalshi. A Yes contract at 28¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Kalshi vs Polymarket on this question
The same question on each venue: Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 26¢cheapest to buy | 75¢ | free | $345 | $54K | Trade → |
| Polymarket USUS residents only | 29¢ | 72¢ | 1.4¢ | – | – | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 28¢cheapest to buy | 73¢ | 1.4¢ | $4K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Kalshi's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
The market asks: “Will Zohran Mamdani be Time Person of the Year in 2026?” Each outcome is its own contract: it pays $1 if it is the answer, and nothing if not. Kalshi publishes the full settlement rules on the market's page. Read them on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Scheduled resolution: Jan 1, 2027.
How to trade this market on Kalshi
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Kalshi account. Our Kalshi review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 28¢ for Zohran Mamdani right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Kalshi's fees apply to each trade.
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CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Kalshi odds on Time's Person of the Year for 2026?
On Kalshi, the busiest line, Zohran Mamdani, is at 28%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Kalshi's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Polymarket too?
Yes. It trades on Polymarket and Polymarket US. Polymarket's page has its prices and rules. Our side-by-side page shows every venue’s prices and rules.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Kalshi. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Kalshi odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Kalshi?
A trading fee on each contract, largest near 50¢ and smaller towards either end. Kalshi's fees has the formula.