Kalshi Time's Person of the Year for 2026 odds
On Kalshi, the busiest line, Elon Musk, is at 6%. The market settles by Jan 1, 2027, and $28K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 6¢ reads as a 6% chance. Polymarket lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
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Also on Polymarket: Polymarket's page
Kalshi · odds · updated
Also priced on Polymarket: 6 questions compared ↓
Kalshi odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elon Musk | 6% | 6¢ | $7K | Trade |
| Zohran Mamdani compare | 30% | 30¢ | $6K | Trade |
| Mark Carney compare | 17% | 17¢ | $5K | Trade |
| Lionel Messi | 3% | 3¢ | $898 | Trade |
| Donald Trump compare | 7% | 7¢ | $740 | Trade |
| Taylor Swift | 3% | 3¢ | $685 | Trade |
| Pope Leo XIV compare | 10% | 10¢ | $652 | Trade |
| AI | 8% | 8¢ | $552 | Trade |
| ChatGPT | 4% | 4¢ | $375 | Trade |
| Dario Amodei compare | 8% | 8¢ | $226 | Trade |
Show 30 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Altman | 6% | 6¢ | $210 | Trade |
| James Talarico | 6% | 6¢ | $203 | Trade |
| Bad Bunny | 4% | 4¢ | $103 | Trade |
| Christina Koch | 5% | 5¢ | $23 | Trade |
| Benjamin Netanyahu compare | 7% | 7¢ | $2 | Trade |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 6% | 6¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Reid Wiseman | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Jeremy Hansen | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Mojtaba Khamenei | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Victor Glover | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Shehbaz Sharif | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Kevin Warsh | 1% | 1¢ | $5K | Trade |
| Abdul El-Sayed | 3% | 3¢ | $312 | Trade |
| Jerome Powell | 2% | 2¢ | $156 | Trade |
| Erika Kirk | 1% | 1¢ | $117 | Trade |
| JD Vance | 1% | 1¢ | $94 | Trade |
| Pete Hegseth | 1% | 1¢ | $94 | Trade |
| Marco Rubio | 3% | 3¢ | $20 | Trade |
| Christopher Nolan | 1% | 1¢ | $12 | Trade |
| Xi Jinping | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Péter Magyar | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Jon Ossoff | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| James Stephen "Jimmy" Donaldson / MrBeast | 2% | 2¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Bernie Sanders | 2% | 2¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Alysa Liu | 2% | 2¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Steve Witkoff | 2% | 2¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Chris Wright | 2% | 2¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 1% | 1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Andy Burnham | 1% | 1¢ | $0 | Trade |
2 more outcomes are priced on Kalshi: the full board on Kalshi (opens in a new tab).
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Kalshi. A Yes contract at 6¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Kalshi vs Polymarket on these questions
The same questions on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 30¢ | 70¢ | 1.0¢ | $44 | $37K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 30¢ | 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $6K | – | Trade → |
Will Mark Carney be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 15¢cheapest to buy | 85¢ | 0.6¢ | $2K | $4K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 17¢ | 83¢ | 1.0¢ | $5K | – | Trade → |
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 10¢ | 90¢ | 0.4¢ | $0 | $24K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 10¢ | 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $652 | – | Trade → |
Will Dario Amodei be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 7¢cheapest to buy | 93¢ | 0.3¢ | $0 | $20K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 8¢ | 92¢ | 0.5¢ | $226 | – | Trade → |
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8¢ | 92¢ | 0.3¢ | $0 | $24K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 7¢cheapest to buy | 93¢ | 0.4¢ | $2 | – | Trade → |
Will Donald Trump be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8¢ | 92¢ | 0.3¢ | $225 | $28K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 7¢cheapest to buy | 93¢ | 0.4¢ | $740 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Kalshi's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
The market asks: “Will Elon Musk be Time Person of the Year in 2026?” Each outcome is its own contract: it pays $1 if it is the answer, and nothing if not. Kalshi publishes the full settlement rules on the market's page. Read them on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Scheduled resolution: Jan 1, 2027.
How to trade this market on Kalshi
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Kalshi account. Our Kalshi review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 6¢ for Elon Musk right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Kalshi's fees apply to each trade.
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Common questions
What are the Kalshi odds on Time's Person of the Year for 2026?
On Kalshi, the busiest line, Elon Musk, is at 6%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Kalshi's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Polymarket too?
Yes. Polymarket's page has its prices and rules. The 6 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Kalshi. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Kalshi odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Kalshi?
A trading fee on each contract, largest near 50¢ and smaller towards either end. Kalshi's fees has the formula.