Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster? Odds and prices
Trading on “Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster” has ended. The prices below are the last quoted; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Final prices by venue
| Venue | Yes last price | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 0¢ | Settled No on this venue |
| Kalshi | 71¢ | Still open on this venue |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the 15th Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt.
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the 15th Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
This market pertains to the 15th Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the 15th Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the 15th launch, and this market will stay open until the 15th launch has occurred. If the 15th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
If SpaceX Starship 15 has been caught by the mechanical arms of a SpaceX Orbital Launch and Integration Tower during a SpaceX Starship flight conducted after Nov 13, 2026 at 12:37 PM ET and before…
Full settlement wording
If SpaceX Starship 15 has been caught by the mechanical arms of a SpaceX Orbital Launch and Integration Tower during a SpaceX Starship flight conducted after Nov 13, 2026 at 12:37 PM ET and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
A qualifying catch requires the specified vehicle to return from flight following liftoff as part of a SpaceX Starship flight test and be captured in mid-air by the tower’s mechanical arms, with the arms bearing its weight and the tower supporting it. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX). All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Where you can trade this
Nowhere now: trading has ended.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster"?
The question is over. The last prices are kept above as a record, not as odds to trade.
Where can I trade "Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster"?
Nowhere now: trading has ended. Polymarket and Kalshi listed it until it closed.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.