Will SpaceX chopsticks catch Starship 15? Kalshi odds
On Kalshi, Yes trades at 71%. The market settles by Jan 8, 2027, and $15K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 71¢ reads as a 71% chance. Polymarket lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
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Kalshi · odds · updated
Kalshi odds on every outcome
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Kalshi. A Yes contract at 71¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Kalshi's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
The market asks: “Will SpaceX chopsticks catch Starship 15 before Jan 1, 2027?” A Yes contract pays $1 if the answer is yes, and nothing if not. Kalshi publishes the full settlement rules on the market's page. Read them on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Scheduled resolution: Jan 8, 2027.
How to trade this market on Kalshi
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Kalshi account. Is Kalshi safe? Our review covers how your money is held and paid out.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 71¢ for Yes right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Kalshi's fees apply to each trade.
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Common questions
What are the Kalshi odds on “Will SpaceX chopsticks catch Starship 15?”?
On Kalshi, Yes trades at 71%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Kalshi's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Polymarket too?
Yes. Polymarket's page has its prices and rules.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Kalshi. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Kalshi odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Kalshi?
A trading fee on each contract, largest near 50¢ and smaller towards either end. Kalshi's fees has the formula.