Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Odds and prices
Markets price "Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026" at 11%, with 2 venues quoting within 4 points of each other. The contract settles by Dec 31, 2026; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Polymarket US.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 9¢cheapest to buy | 91¢ | 0.3¢ | $146 | $2K | Trade → |
| Polymarket US$25 bonusUS residents only | 13¢ | 88¢ | 0.8–1.0¢ | – | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
This market will settle to Yes if OpenAI has the #1 ranked AI model on the Arena AI Text Arena leaderboard at any point between Contract Issuance and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (Style Control…
Full settlement wording
This market will settle to Yes if OpenAI has the #1 ranked AI model on the Arena AI Text Arena leaderboard at any point between Contract Issuance and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (Style Control Off). Outcome sourced from Arena AI.
The #1 ranking is determined by the "Rank" column of the Arena AI Text Arena leaderboard, with Style Control toggled off (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control).
If multiple models from different companies are tied for rank #1, both models will be considered a #1 ranked model.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026"?
Markets currently price it at 11% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026"?
On Polymarket and Polymarket US. Polymarket US takes US residents only; from the US, polymarket.com is close-only. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.