Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31? Polymarket odds
On Polymarket, the busiest line, Meta, is at 11%. The market settles by Dec 31, 2026, and $578 traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 11¢ reads as an 11% chance. Polymarket US and Kalshi list it too, and we compare the prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Also on Polymarket US: Polymarket US's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Polymarket US and Kalshi: 2 questions compared ↓
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta | 11% | 11¢ | $417 | Trade |
| OpenAI compare | 9% | 9¢ | $101 | Trade |
| Anthropic | 29% | 29¢ | $60 | Trade |
| xAI | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Baidu | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| DeepSeek compare | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Alibaba | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Moonshot | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Meituan | 2% | 2¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Microsoft | 2% | 2¢ | $0 | Trade |
Show 5 more outcomes
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 11¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on these questions
The same questions on each venue: Polymarket, Polymarket US and Kalshi. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 9¢cheapest to buy | 91¢ | 0.3¢ | $101 | $2K | Trade → |
| Polymarket US$25 bonusUS residents only | 13¢ | 88¢ | 0.8–1.0¢ | – | – | Trade → |
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 3¢cheapest to buy | 97¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | $3K | Trade → |
| Polymarket US$25 bonusUS residents only | 7¢cheapest to buy | 94¢ | 0.4–0.6¢ | – | – | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 15¢ | 85¢ | 0.9¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Scheduled resolution: Dec 31, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Is Polymarket safe? Our review covers how your money is held and paid out.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 11¢ for Meta right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on “Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?”?
On Polymarket, the busiest line, Meta, is at 11%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. It trades on Polymarket US and Kalshi. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. The 2 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.