Which Companies will have #1 AI Model in 2026? Polymarket US odds
On Polymarket US, the busiest line, Meta, is at 16%. That price is unchanged over the past week. The market settles by Dec 31, 2026. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 16¢ reads as a 16% chance. Polymarket and Kalshi list it too, and we compare the prices below.
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Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Also on Polymarket: Polymarket's page
Polymarket US · odds · updated
Also priced on Polymarket and Kalshi: 2 questions compared ↓
Polymarket US odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta | 16% | 16¢ | – | Trade |
| OpenAI compare | 13% | 13¢ | – | Trade |
| xAI | 8% | 8¢ | – | Trade |
| DeepSeek compare | 7% | 7¢ | – | Trade |
| Baidu | 7% | 7¢ | – | Trade |
| Alibaba | 6% | 6¢ | – | Trade |
| ByteDance | 4% | 4¢ | – | Trade |
| Moonshot | 4% | 4¢ | – | Trade |
| Amazon | 3% | 3¢ | – | Trade |
| Z.ai | 2% | 2¢ | – | Trade |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket US. A Yes contract at 16¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket US vs Kalshi on these questions
The same questions on each venue: Polymarket US, Polymarket and Kalshi. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 9¢cheapest to buy | 91¢ | 0.3¢ | $146 | $2K | Trade → |
| Polymarket US$25 bonusUS residents only | 13¢ | 88¢ | 0.8–1.0¢ | – | – | Trade → |
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 3¢cheapest to buy | 97¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | $3K | Trade → |
| Polymarket US$25 bonusUS residents only | 7¢cheapest to buy | 94¢ | 0.4–0.6¢ | – | – | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 15¢ | 85¢ | 0.9¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket US's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
The market asks: “Which Companies will have #1 AI Model in 2026?: Meta?” Each outcome is its own contract: it pays $1 if it is the answer, and nothing if not. Polymarket US publishes the full settlement rules on the market's page. Read them on Polymarket US (opens in a new tab)
Scheduled resolution: Dec 31, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket US
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket US account. It takes US residents only; outside the US, Polymarket is the international exchange. Our Polymarket app review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 16¢ for Meta right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket US's fees apply to each trade.
$25 bonusNew to Polymarket US? Deposit $10, get a $25 bonus through our link. US only, 18+.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket US odds on “Which Companies will have #1 AI Model in 2026?”?
On Polymarket US, the busiest line, Meta, is at 16%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket US's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Polymarket and Kalshi too?
Yes. It trades on Polymarket and Kalshi. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. The 2 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket US odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket US?
A taker fee on each contract of 0.0695 to 0.095 × price × (1 − price), largest near 50¢. Your 30-day volume sets the rate, and resting (maker) orders pay nothing. Polymarket US's fees has the detail.