What will Gold (GC) hit… by end of December? Polymarket odds
On Polymarket, the busiest line, ↑ $6,000, is at 8%. The market settles by Dec 31, 2026, and $49K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 8¢ reads as an 8% chance.
Polymarket · odds · updated
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ $2,500 | 2% | 2¢ | $0 | Trade |
| ↓ $3,000 | 4% | 4¢ | $23 | Trade |
| ↓ $3,500 | 12% | 12¢ | $0 | Trade |
| ↑ $5,000 | 23% | 23¢ | $239 | Trade |
| ↑ $6,000 | 8% | 8¢ | $49K | Trade |
| ↑ $7,000 | 3% | 3¢ | $155 | Trade |
| ↑ $8,000 | 2% | 2¢ | $0 | Trade |
| ↑ $10,000 | 1% | 1¢ | $26 | Trade |
| ↑ $12,000 | 1% | 1¢ | $6 | Trade |
| ↑ $15,000 | 1% | 1¢ | $4 | Trade |
Show 1 more outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ $4,500 | – | – | $0 | Trade |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 2¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures. If the official settlement price for any relevant trading day has not been published on the CME Group website within 72 hours of the final trading day (ET) of the specified period, the market will resolve based on the settlement prices published through all CME channels up to that point.
Scheduled resolution: Dec 30, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 2¢ for ↓ $2,500 right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on “What will Gold (GC) hit… by end of December?”?
On Polymarket, the busiest line, ↑ $6,000, is at 8%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.