Polymarket Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is Flávio Bolsonaro <4%, at 45%. The market settles by Oct 25, 2026, and $1.2M traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 45¢ reads as a 45% chance.
Polymarket · odds · updated
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro <4% | 45% | 45¢ | $196K | Trade |
| Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% | 31% | 31¢ | $208K | Trade |
| Lula da Silva <4% | 20% | 20¢ | $166K | Trade |
| Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% | 4% | 4¢ | $142K | Trade |
| Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+ | 1% | 1¢ | $173K | Trade |
| Lula da Silva 4-8% | 1% | 1¢ | $155K | Trade |
| Lula da Silva 8-12% | – | – | $125K | Trade |
| Lula da Silva 12%+ | – | – | $36K | Trade |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 45¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Scheduled resolution: Oct 25, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Is Polymarket safe? Our review covers how your money is held and paid out.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 45¢ for Flávio Bolsonaro <4% right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
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Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory?
On Polymarket, the favourite is Flávio Bolsonaro <4%, at 45%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.