Polymarket Presidential Election Winner 2028 odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is JD Vance, at 20%. The market settles by Nov 7, 2028, and $360K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 20¢ reads as a 20% chance. We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet, so there is no second price.
This question also has a permanent page: 2028 US presidential election odds
Polymarket · odds · updated
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 20% | 20¢ | $8K | Trade |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 15% | 15¢ | $58K | Trade |
| Jon Ossoff | 11% | 11¢ | $281 | Trade |
| Marco Rubio | 9% | 9¢ | $10K | Trade |
| Gavin Newsom | 8% | 8¢ | $16K | Trade |
| Kamala Harris | 4% | 4¢ | $67K | Trade |
| Josh Shapiro | 3% | 3¢ | $60 | Trade |
| Pete Buttigieg | 3% | 3¢ | $11K | Trade |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 2% | 2¢ | $6K | Trade |
| Tucker Carlson | 2% | 2¢ | $100 | Trade |
Show 30 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Beshear | 2% | 2¢ | $319 | Trade |
| Ron DeSantis | 2% | 2¢ | $126 | Trade |
| Mark Kelly | 1% | 1¢ | $2K | Trade |
| Donald Trump | 1% | 1¢ | $1K | Trade |
| James Talarico | 1% | 1¢ | $76K | Trade |
| Wes Moore | 1% | 1¢ | $4K | Trade |
| Thomas Massie | 1% | 1¢ | $47 | Trade |
| Ro Khanna | 1% | 1¢ | $10K | Trade |
| Rahm Emanuel | 1% | 1¢ | $12K | Trade |
| JB Pritzker | 1% | 1¢ | $10K | Trade |
| Ted Cruz | 1% | 1¢ | $2K | Trade |
| Ivanka Trump | 1% | 1¢ | $466 | Trade |
| Donald Trump Jr. | <1% | <1¢ | $238 | Trade |
| Jamie Dimon | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Gretchen Whitmer | <1% | <1¢ | $201 | Trade |
| Raphael Warnock | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Glenn Youngkin | <1% | <1¢ | $45K | Trade |
| Elon Musk | <1% | <1¢ | $6K | Trade |
| Tulsi Gabbard | <1% | <1¢ | $2K | Trade |
| Greg Abbott | <1% | <1¢ | $626 | Trade |
| Michelle Obama | <1% | <1¢ | $116 | Trade |
| LeBron James | – | – | $5 | Trade |
| Nikki Haley | – | – | $1K | Trade |
| Zohran Mamdani | – | – | $6K | Trade |
| Abigail Spanberger | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Elissa Slotkin | – | – | $98 | Trade |
| Tim Walz | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Kim Kardashian | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | – | – | $5 | Trade |
| Stephen Smith | – | – | $1K | Trade |
14 more outcomes are priced on Polymarket: the full board on Polymarket (opens in a new tab).
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 20¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Scheduled resolution: Nov 7, 2028.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 20¢ for JD Vance right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Presidential Election Winner 2028?
On Polymarket, the favourite is JD Vance, at 20%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.