Polymarket Presidential Election Winner 2028 odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is JD Vance, at 21%. The market settles by Nov 7, 2028, and $401K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 21¢ reads as a 21% chance. Polymarket US lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
This question also has a permanent page: 2028 US presidential election odds
Also on Polymarket US: Polymarket US's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Polymarket US: 4 questions compared ↓
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 21% | 21¢ | $8K | Trade |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 13% | 13¢ | $4K | Trade |
| Gavin Newsom | 11% | 11¢ | $15K | Trade |
| Jon Ossoff compare | 9% | 9¢ | $13K | Trade |
| Marco Rubio | 9% | 9¢ | $20K | Trade |
| Kamala Harris | 4% | 4¢ | $6K | Trade |
| Josh Shapiro | 3% | 3¢ | $630 | Trade |
| Pete Buttigieg | 3% | 3¢ | $15K | Trade |
| Ron DeSantis | 2% | 2¢ | $113 | Trade |
| Andy Beshear compare | 2% | 2¢ | $533 | Trade |
Show 30 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico compare | 2% | 2¢ | $8K | Trade |
| Donald Trump | 1% | 1¢ | $785 | Trade |
| Tucker Carlson | 1% | 1¢ | $541 | Trade |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1% | 1¢ | $5K | Trade |
| Raphael Warnock | 1% | 1¢ | $7K | Trade |
| Mark Kelly | 1% | 1¢ | $81 | Trade |
| Wes Moore | 1% | 1¢ | $2K | Trade |
| Thomas Massie | 1% | 1¢ | $9K | Trade |
| Ro Khanna | 1% | 1¢ | $390 | Trade |
| JB Pritzker | 1% | 1¢ | $21K | Trade |
| Ivanka Trump | 1% | 1¢ | $4K | Trade |
| Ted Cruz | 1% | 1¢ | $61K | Trade |
| Rahm Emanuel | 1% | 1¢ | $51K | Trade |
| Donald Trump Jr. compare | 1% | 1¢ | $478 | Trade |
| Gretchen Whitmer | <1% | <1¢ | $824 | Trade |
| Jamie Dimon | <1% | <1¢ | $416 | Trade |
| Michelle Obama | <1% | <1¢ | $7K | Trade |
| Elon Musk | <1% | <1¢ | $4K | Trade |
| Glenn Youngkin | <1% | <1¢ | $3K | Trade |
| Tulsi Gabbard | <1% | <1¢ | $2K | Trade |
| Greg Abbott | <1% | <1¢ | $602 | Trade |
| LeBron James | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Nikki Haley | – | – | $1K | Trade |
| Zohran Mamdani | – | – | $10K | Trade |
| Pete Hegseth | – | – | $60K | Trade |
| Abigail Spanberger | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Elissa Slotkin | – | – | $50K | Trade |
| Tim Walz | – | – | $2 | Trade |
| Kim Kardashian | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | – | – | $1K | Trade |
14 more outcomes are priced on Polymarket: the full board on Polymarket (opens in a new tab).
Close-only for US residentsChance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 21¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on these questions
The same questions on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 9¢cheapest to buy | 91¢ | free | $13K | $312K | Trade → |
| Polymarket USUS residents only | 11¢ | 90¢ | 0.7¢ | – | – | Trade → |
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 2¢cheapest to buy | 98¢ | free | $533 | $254K | Trade → |
| Polymarket USUS residents only | 4¢ | 97¢ | 0.2¢ | – | – | Trade → |
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 2¢cheapest to buy | 98¢ | free | $8K | $370K | Trade → |
| Polymarket USUS residents only | 4¢ | 97¢ | 0.2¢ | – | – | Trade → |
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 1¢cheapest to buy | 99¢ | free | $478 | $968K | Trade → |
| Polymarket USUS residents only | 2¢ | 99¢ | 0.1¢ | – | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.
This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Scheduled resolution: Nov 7, 2028.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Is Polymarket safe? Our review covers how your money is held and paid out.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 21¢ for JD Vance right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Presidential Election Winner 2028?
On Polymarket, the favourite is JD Vance, at 21%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Not on Kalshi yet: it trades on Polymarket US. The 4 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.