Polymarket California Governor Election odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is Xavier Becerra, at 97%. The market settles by Nov 3, 2026, and $138K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 97¢ reads as a 97% chance. Polymarket US and Kalshi list it too, and we compare the prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Also on Polymarket US: Polymarket US's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Polymarket US and Kalshi: 2 questions compared ↓
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Becerra compare | 97% | 97¢ | $10K | Trade |
| Steve Hilton compare | 3% | 3¢ | $127K | Trade |
| Tom Steyer | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Alex Padilla | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Chad Bianco | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Kyle Langford | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Rick Caruso | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Nicole Shanahan | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Katie Porter | – | – | $1K | Trade |
| Betty Yee | – | – | $0 | Trade |
Show 13 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Villaraigosa | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Stephen Cloobeck | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Kamala Harris | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Toni Atkins | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Michael Younger | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Eric Swalwell | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Eleni Kounalakis | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Tony Thurmond | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Daniel Mercuri | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Matt Mahan | – | – | $12 | Trade |
| Butch Ware | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Elaine Culotti | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Leo Zacky | – | – | $0 | Trade |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 97¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on these questions
The same questions on each venue: Polymarket, Polymarket US and Kalshi. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 97¢ | 3¢ | free | $10K | $197K | Trade → |
| Polymarket USUS residents only | 97¢ | 4¢ | 0.2¢ | – | – | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 96¢cheapest to buy | 4¢ | 0.2¢ | $43K | – | Trade → |
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 3¢cheapest to buy | 97¢ | free | $127K | $227K | Trade → |
| Polymarket USUS residents only | 4¢ | 97¢ | 0.2¢ | – | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Scheduled resolution: Nov 3, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket app review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 97¢ for Xavier Becerra right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on California Governor Election?
On Polymarket, the favourite is Xavier Becerra, at 97%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. It trades on Polymarket US and Kalshi. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. The 2 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.