Polymarket Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, at 18%. The market settles by Nov 7, 2028, and $402K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 18¢ reads as an 18% chance. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Kalshi: 2 questions compared ↓
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 18% | 18¢ | $16K | Trade |
| Gavin Newsom | 16% | 16¢ | $17K | Trade |
| Jon Ossoff | 14% | 14¢ | $28K | Trade |
| Kamala Harris | 7% | 7¢ | $3K | Trade |
| Josh Shapiro | 6% | 6¢ | $4K | Trade |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5% | 5¢ | $2K | Trade |
| Andy Beshear | 3% | 3¢ | $2K | Trade |
| James Talarico | 3% | 3¢ | $278 | Trade |
| Mark Kelly | 3% | 3¢ | $39 | Trade |
| Wes Moore | 2% | 2¢ | $3K | Trade |
Show 30 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rahm Emanuel | 2% | 2¢ | $33K | Trade |
| Ro Khanna | 2% | 2¢ | $25K | Trade |
| J.B. Pritzker | 1% | 1¢ | $125 | Trade |
| Jon Stewart | 1% | 1¢ | $45 | Trade |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1% | 1¢ | $56 | Trade |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 1% | 1¢ | $740 | Trade |
| Bernie Sanders compare | 1% | 1¢ | $391 | Trade |
| Chelsea Clinton | 1% | 1¢ | $715 | Trade |
| Cory Booker | 1% | 1¢ | $2 | Trade |
| Raphael Warnock compare | 1% | 1¢ | $24K | Trade |
| Hunter Biden | <1% | <1¢ | $257 | Trade |
| Mark Cuban | <1% | <1¢ | $447 | Trade |
| Chris Murphy | <1% | <1¢ | $54K | Trade |
| Roy Cooper | <1% | <1¢ | $40K | Trade |
| Michelle Obama | <1% | <1¢ | $126 | Trade |
| Chris Van Hollen | <1% | <1¢ | $6K | Trade |
| Mitch Landrieu | <1% | <1¢ | $5K | Trade |
| Hillary Clinton | <1% | <1¢ | $173 | Trade |
| Phil Murphy | <1% | <1¢ | $168 | Trade |
| Gina Raimondo | <1% | <1¢ | $116 | Trade |
| Jared Polis | <1% | <1¢ | $100 | Trade |
| Stephen A. Smith | <1% | <1¢ | $83 | Trade |
| Josh Stein | <1% | <1¢ | $69 | Trade |
| Abigail Spanberger | <1% | <1¢ | $45 | Trade |
| Hakeem Jeffries | <1% | <1¢ | $33 | Trade |
| Elissa Slotkin | <1% | <1¢ | $33 | Trade |
| Zohran Mamdani | <1% | <1¢ | $32 | Trade |
| Ruben Gallego | <1% | <1¢ | $12 | Trade |
| Jasmine Crockett | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Barack Obama | <1% | <1¢ | $0 | Trade |
13 more outcomes are priced on Polymarket: the full board on Polymarket (opens in a new tab).
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 18¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on these questions
The same questions on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 1¢ | 99¢ | <0.1¢ | $24K | $1.4M | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 1¢ | 99¢ | <0.1¢ | $88K | – | Trade → |
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 1¢ | 99¢ | <0.1¢ | $391 | $838K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | <1¢cheapest to buy | >99¢ | <0.1¢ | $2K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Scheduled resolution: Nov 7, 2028.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 18¢ for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028?
On Polymarket, the favourite is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, at 18%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. The 2 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.