Kalshi Brazil presidential election: first round odds
On Kalshi, Flávio Bolsonaro closed at over 99%. Trading has closed; the result settles the contracts. A contract that closed at over 99¢ pays $1 if that outcome is the result, and nothing if not. Polymarket lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Polymarket: Polymarket's page
Kalshi · final prices · updated
Also priced on Polymarket: 2 questions compared ↓
Kalshi odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio BolsonaroFinal compare | >99% | >99¢ | $299K |
| Augusto CuryFinal | 1% | 1¢ | $3K |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaFinal compare | <1% | <1¢ | $565K |
| Fernando HaddadFinal | <1% | <1¢ | $45K |
| Renan SantosFinal | <1% | <1¢ | $0 |
| Romeu ZemaFinal | <1% | <1¢ | $0 |
| Ronaldo CaiadoFinal | <1% | <1¢ | $0 |
| Tarcísio de FreitasFinal | <1% | <1¢ | $0 |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Kalshi. A Yes contract at >99¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Kalshi vs Polymarket on these questions
The same questions on both venues. Trading has ended; these are the last prices each venue quoted.
| Venue | Yes last price | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 100¢ | Settled: Yes |
| Kalshi | >99¢ | Settled: Yes |
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?
| Venue | Yes last price | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 0¢ | Settled: No |
| Kalshi | <1¢ | Settled: No |
How the odds have moved
Kalshi's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market settled
The market asks: “Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?” Each outcome is its own contract: it pays $1 if it is the answer, and nothing if not. Kalshi publishes the full settlement rules on the market's page. Read them on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Scheduled resolution: Jan 1, 2027.
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Common questions
What are the Kalshi odds on Brazil presidential election: first round?
On Kalshi, Flávio Bolsonaro closed at over 99%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Kalshi's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Polymarket too?
Yes. Polymarket's page has its prices and rules. The 2 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Kalshi. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Kalshi odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Kalshi?
A trading fee on each contract, largest near 50¢ and smaller towards either end. Kalshi's fees has the formula.