Will Luka Mesec win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election? Odds and prices
Markets price "Will Luka Mesec win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election" at 23%, with 2 venues quoting at the same price. The contract settles by Nov 15, 2026; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 23¢ | 77¢ | 0.7¢ | $39K | $49K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 23¢ | 77¢ | 1.2¢ | $3K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
The next Ljubljana mayoral election is scheduled to be held on November 15, 2026, to elect the mayor of the City Municipality of Ljubljana, Slovenia (župan Mestne občine Ljubljana).
Full settlement wording
The next Ljubljana mayoral election is scheduled to be held on November 15, 2026, to elect the mayor of the City Municipality of Ljubljana, Slovenia (župan Mestne občine Ljubljana). If no candidate wins a majority of valid votes in the first round, a runoff between the two leading candidates is scheduled for November 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Ljubljana as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Municipal Election Commission of the City Municipality of Ljubljana (Občinska volilna komisija Mestne občine Ljubljana) and published by the State Election Commission (Državna volilna komisija, DVK) (https://www.dvk-rs.si/).
If Luka Mesec wins the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Will Luka Mesec win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election"?
Markets currently price it at 23% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "Will Luka Mesec win the 2026 Ljubljana mayoral election"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.