Polymarket Serbia Parliamentary Election odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia, at 57%. The market settles by Oct 25, 2026, and $2.5M traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 57¢ reads as a 57% chance.
Polymarket · odds · updated
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia | 57% | 57¢ | $1.4M | Trade |
| Student List – Students Win | 44% | 44¢ | $899K | Trade |
| European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš | – | – | $115K | Trade |
| Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability! | – | – | $8K | Trade |
| SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak | – | – | $9K | Trade |
| Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović | – | – | $7K | Trade |
| Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification | – | – | $5K | Trade |
| Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP) | – | – | $2K | Trade |
| Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić | – | – | $2K | Trade |
| Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor | – | – | $2K | Trade |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 57¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026.
This market will resolve to the electoral list that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Serbia as a result of this election.
Electoral lists will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more lists are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If lists remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the list that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named electoral list, as it appears on the ballot and official proclamations, regardless of which parties make up the list or how its members later organize themselves in the National Assembly.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).
Scheduled resolution: Oct 25, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 57¢ for Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
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Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Serbia Parliamentary Election?
On Polymarket, the favourite is Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia, at 57%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.