Kalshi Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026 odds
On Kalshi, the favourite is Ciryl Gane, at 70%. The market settles by Dec 31, 2026, and $2K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 70¢ reads as a 70% chance. Polymarket lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
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Also on Polymarket: Polymarket's page
Kalshi · odds · updated
Also priced on Polymarket: 4 questions compared ↓
Kalshi odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciryl Gane compare | 70% | 70¢ | $716 | Trade |
| Josh Hokit compare | 32% | 32¢ | $2K | Trade |
| Alex Pereira compare | 1% | 1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Tom Aspinall compare | 1% | 1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Alexander Volkov | 1% | 1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Jon Jones | 1% | 1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 1% | 1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Vacant | 1% | 1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 1% | 1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Jailton Almeida | 1% | 1¢ | $0 | Trade |
Show 2 more outcomes
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Kalshi. A Yes contract at 70¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Kalshi vs Polymarket on these questions
The same questions on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 67¢cheapest to buy | 34¢ | 0.7¢ | $393 | $2K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 70¢ | 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $716 | – | Trade → |
Will Josh Hokit be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 30¢cheapest to buy | 71¢ | 0.6¢ | $168 | $3K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 32¢ | 69¢ | 1.5¢ | $2K | – | Trade → |
Will Alex Pereira be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | <1¢ | >99¢ | <0.1¢ | $0 | $3K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 1¢ | >99¢ | <0.1¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
Will Tom Aspinall be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | <1¢ | >99¢ | <0.1¢ | $14 | $4K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 1¢ | >99¢ | <0.1¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Kalshi's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
The market asks: “Who will be the Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026?” Each outcome is its own contract: it pays $1 if it is the answer, and nothing if not. Kalshi publishes the full settlement rules on the market's page. Read them on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Scheduled resolution: Dec 31, 2026.
How to trade this market on Kalshi
- Check your state first. Several states restrict sports contracts.
- Open a Kalshi account. Is Kalshi legit? Our review covers safety, sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 70¢ for Ciryl Gane right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Kalshi's fees apply to each trade.
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Common questions
What are the Kalshi odds on Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026?
On Kalshi, the favourite is Ciryl Gane, at 70%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Kalshi's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Polymarket too?
Yes. Polymarket's page has its prices and rules. The 4 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Kalshi. Sports contracts are the exception: several states restrict them. Check your state first.
How accurate are Kalshi odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Kalshi?
A trading fee on each contract, largest near 50¢ and smaller towards either end. Kalshi's fees has the formula.