Will Alex Pereira be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Odds and prices
"Will Alex Pereira be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026" is priced at 0% on Polymarket and 1% on Kalshi, where Kalshi has no live quote: the venues disagree, so <1% is their average, not a consensus. The contract settles by Dec 30, 2026; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | <1¢ | >99¢ | <0.1¢ | $0 | $3K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 1¢ | >99¢ | <0.1¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.
If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
If Alex Pereira is the UFC Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
If there is no recognized champion in Heavyweight on Dec 31, 2026, the market titled "Vacant" will resolve Yes. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Will Alex Pereira be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026"?
The venues disagree: 0% on Polymarket and 1% on Kalshi. The <1% shown is their average; the gap often comes from settlement rules worded differently, compared on this page.
Where can I trade "Will Alex Pereira be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.