Will Arman Tsarukyan be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Odds and prices

8%
Yes

Consensus across 2 venues · Updated

Markets price "Will Arman Tsarukyan be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026" at 8%, with 2 venues quoting within 1 point of each other. The contract settles by Dec 31, 2026; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.

This question on Polymarket and Polymarket US.

$359
24h volume on Polymarket (Polymarket US publishes none)
2
venues quoting
Dec 31, 2026
settles

Odds by venue

Yes: Will Arman Tsarukyan be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?: price on each venue, the fee, 24h volume and liquidity, with a link to trade
VenueYesNoFee24h volumeLiquidity
PolymarketClose-only for US residents8¢cheapest to buy92¢0.2¢$359$5KTrade →
Polymarket USUS residents only9¢92¢0.5¢––Trade →
Updated Fee: the taker fee on one contract at the price shown, as each venue publishes it; Polymarket’s is its international book, and Polymarket US charges its own (0.0695 × price × (1 − price) to takers, nothing to makers).

How the odds have moved

Polymarket · Will Arman Tsarukyan be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026
8%▲ 0.7 pts since Oct 19
Yes price
Oct 190% – 15% scaleOct 26

One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.

What the market is actually pricing

Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Full settlement wording

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count.

If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

Polymarket US

If Arman Tsarukyan holds the UFC Lightweight Title on December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST, this market will settle to Yes.

Full settlement wording

If Arman Tsarukyan holds the UFC Lightweight Title on December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST, this market will settle to Yes. Outcome verified by the UFC. Only the undisputed champion is recognized for resolution purposes; an interim champion does not qualify unless elevated to undisputed status by the governing body. This market resolves Yes if Arman Tsarukyan is the undisputed champion recognized by the governing body, having won the title before December 31, 2026 and not having lost it by 11:59 PM EST, wins the title on December 31, 2026 with the result standing at 11:59 PM EST, or is suspended but not stripped of the title. This market resolves No if Arman Tsarukyan is stripped of the title, loses the title before or on December 31, 2026 by 11:59 PM EST, voluntarily relinquishes or vacates the title, or holds only an interim title when an undisputed champion exists. For title fights occurring on December 31, 2026, the result must be official by 11:59 PM EST; otherwise the market resolves based on the previous champion. Overturned results after 11:59 PM EST on December 31, 2026 do not affect resolution. If no champion is declared by the governing organization within two weeks of the expiration date, this market will settle at the last fair market price.

Where you can trade this

The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.

Related markets

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Common questions

What are the odds on "Will Arman Tsarukyan be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026"?

Markets currently price it at 8% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.

Where can I trade "Will Arman Tsarukyan be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026"?

On Polymarket and Polymarket US. Polymarket US takes US residents only; from the US, polymarket.com is close-only. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.