Polymarket US UFC Lightweight Champion on Dec 31, 2026 odds
On Polymarket US, the favourite is Justin Gaethje, at 82%. That is down 7 points over the past week. The market settles by Dec 31, 2026. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 82¢ reads as an 82% chance. Polymarket lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Polymarket: Polymarket's page
Polymarket US · odds · updated
Also priced on Polymarket: 2 questions compared ↓
Polymarket US odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje compare | 82% | 82¢ | – | Trade |
| Arman Tsarukyan compare | 9% | 9¢ | – | Trade |
| Ilia Topuria | 2% | 2¢ | – | Trade |
| Islam Makhachev | 2% | 2¢ | – | Trade |
| Paddy Pimblett | 2% | 2¢ | – | Trade |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 2% | 2¢ | – | Trade |
| Charles Oliveira | – | – | – | Trade |
| Max Holloway | – | – | – | Trade |
| Mateusz Gamrot | – | – | – | Trade |
| Benoit Saint-Denis | – | – | – | Trade |
Show 1 more outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Hooker | – | – | – | Trade |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket US. A Yes contract at 82¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket US vs Kalshi on these questions
The same questions on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 91¢ | 9¢ | 0.2¢ | $396 | $5K | Trade → |
| Polymarket USUS residents only | 82¢cheapest to buy | 19¢ | 1.0¢ | – | – | Trade → |
Will Arman Tsarukyan be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 8¢cheapest to buy | 92¢ | 0.2¢ | $359 | $5K | Trade → |
| Polymarket USUS residents only | 9¢ | 92¢ | 0.5¢ | – | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket US's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
The contract is “UFC Lightweight Champion on Dec 31, 2026: Justin Gaethje”. Each outcome is its own contract: it pays $1 if it is the answer, and nothing if not. Polymarket US publishes the full settlement rules on the market's page. Read them on Polymarket US (opens in a new tab)
Scheduled resolution: Dec 31, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket US
- Check your state first. Several states restrict sports contracts.
- Open a Polymarket US account. It takes US residents only; outside the US, Polymarket is the international exchange. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 82¢ for Justin Gaethje right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket US's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket US odds on UFC Lightweight Champion on Dec 31, 2026?
On Polymarket US, the favourite is Justin Gaethje, at 82%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket US's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Polymarket too?
Yes. The 2 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. Sports contracts are the exception: several states restrict them. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket US odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket US?
A taker fee on each contract of 0.0695 × price × (1 − price), largest near 50¢; resting (maker) orders pay nothing. Polymarket US's fees has the detail.