Polymarket UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card) odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is Tom Nolan, at 55%. The market settles by Oct 31, 2026, and $2K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 55¢ reads as a 55% chance. We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet, so there is no second price.
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Nolan | 55% | 55¢ | $2K | Trade |
| Decision or Draw | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Moicano in Round 3 | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| O/U 3.5 Rounds | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Ends before Round 2 | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| O/U 4.5 Rounds | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Fight won by decision | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Fight won by KO/TKO | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Nolan in Round 2 | – | – | $0 | Trade |
Show 17 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan in Round 1 | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Nolan to win by KO/TKO | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Nolan in Round 3 | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Nolan in Round 5 | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Ends before Round 3 | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Nolan in Round 4 | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Fight won by submission | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Ends before Round 4 | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Moicano in Round 1 | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Ends before Round 5 | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Moicano in Round 4 | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Fight to Go the Distance | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Moicano to win by KO/TKO | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Moicano in Round 2 | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Moicano in Round 5 | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | – | – | $4 | Trade |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 55¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve to "Renato Moicano" if Renato Moicano is officially declared the winner of the fight against Tom Nolan at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026.
It will resolve to "Tom Nolan" if Tom Nolan is officially declared the winner.
If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Scheduled resolution: Oct 31, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. Several states restrict sports contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 55¢ for Tom Nolan right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card)?
On Polymarket, the favourite is Tom Nolan, at 55%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. Sports contracts are the exception: several states restrict them. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.