Polymarket Belgium vs. Italy odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is Belgium, at 43%. The market settles by Nov 15, 2026, and $8K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 43¢ reads as a 43% chance. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Polymarket odds on every outcome
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 43¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on this match
The same match on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Belgium · Will Belgium win on Nov 15, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 43¢ | 58¢ | 1.2¢ | $2K | $79K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 43¢ | 58¢ | 1.7¢ | $15K | – | Trade → |
Draw · Will Belgium vs. Italy end in a draw?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 26¢ | 75¢ | 0.9¢ | $409 | $103K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 26¢ | 75¢ | 1.3¢ | $18K | – | Trade → |
Italy · Will Italy win on Nov 15, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 33¢ | 68¢ | 1.1¢ | $6K | $101K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 32¢cheapest to buy | 69¢ | 1.5¢ | $56K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
The market asks: “Will Belgium win on Nov 15, 2026?” Each outcome is its own contract: it pays $1 if it is the answer, and nothing if not. Polymarket publishes the full settlement rules on the market's page. Read them on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)
Scheduled resolution: Nov 15, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. Several states restrict sports contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 43¢ for Belgium right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Belgium vs. Italy?
On Polymarket, the favourite is Belgium, at 43%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. Our side-by-side page shows both prices and both venues' rules.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. Sports contracts are the exception: several states restrict them. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.