Polymarket Gemini 4.0 released odds
On Polymarket, the busiest line, October 15, is at 72%. The market settles by Nov 30, 2026, and $18K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 72¢ reads as a 72% chance. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Kalshi: compare both
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 5 | 2% | 2¢ | $782 | Trade |
| October 10 | 35% | 35¢ | $2K | Trade |
| October 15 | 72% | 72¢ | $11K | Trade |
| November 30 compare | 97% | 97¢ | $1K | Trade |
| October 31 | 90% | 90¢ | $3K | Trade |
| October 2Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| September 15Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| September 30Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| June 30Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| August 31Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 |
Show 1 more outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 2¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on this question
The same question on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 97¢ | 3¢ | 0.1¢ | $1K | $13K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 95¢cheapest to buy | 5¢ | 0.3¢ | $75 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Scheduled resolution: Oct 15, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 2¢ for October 5 right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Gemini 4.0 released?
On Polymarket, the busiest line, October 15, is at 72%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. Our side-by-side page shows both prices and both venues' rules.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.