Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026: odds and prices
Markets price "Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026" at 96%, with 2 venues quoting within 2 points of each other. The contract settles by Nov 30, 2026; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 97¢ | 3¢ | 0.1¢ | $1K | $13K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 95¢cheapest to buy | 5¢ | 0.3¢ | $75 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 is made available to the general public by the listed date.
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
If Google releases Gemini 4 before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
Related markets
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 10% · $11K 24h volume, both venues
Will Waymo launch in Denver, CO by December 31 2026?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 83% · $2K 24h volume, both venues
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 14% · $2K 24h volume, both venues
Will Waymo launch in Charlotte, NC by December 31 2026?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 8% · $2K 24h volume, both venues
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 23% · $627 24h volume, both venues
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?
Polymarket · Kalshi · Yes 9% · $590 24h volume, both venues
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ at execution.
Common questions
What are the odds on "Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026"?
Markets currently price it at 96% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.