Where will Waymo operate in 2026? Kalshi odds
On Kalshi, the busiest line, Denver, CO, is at 83%. The market settles by Jan 8, 2027, and $6K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 83¢ reads as an 83% chance. Polymarket lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
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Also on Polymarket: Polymarket's page
Kalshi · odds · updated
Also priced on Polymarket: compare both
14 of these outcomes are priced on Polymarket too: the favourite is compared below, and each outcome links its own comparison.
Kalshi odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver, CO compare | 83% | 83¢ | $2K | Trade |
| Charlotte, NC compare | 8% | 8¢ | $1K | Trade |
| Las Vegas, NV | 79% | 79¢ | $607 | Trade |
| Sacramento, CA compare | 13% | 13¢ | $292 | Trade |
| Seattle, WA | 8% | 8¢ | $200 | Trade |
| San Diego, CA compare | 82% | 82¢ | $127 | Trade |
| Tampa, FL compare | 79% | 79¢ | $127 | Trade |
| Baltimore, MD compare | 4% | 4¢ | $18 | Trade |
| Minneapolis, MN compare | 4% | 4¢ | $10 | Trade |
| Chicago, IL compare | 4% | 4¢ | $10 | Trade |
Show 11 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York, NY | 4% | 4¢ | $6 | Trade |
| Detroit, MI compare | 13% | 13¢ | $0 | Trade |
| St. Louis, MO compare | 11% | 11¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Philadelphia, PA | 8% | 8¢ | $0 | Trade |
| New Orleans, LA compare | 6% | 6¢ | $0 | Trade |
| London, UK | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Washington, DC compare | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Tokyo, Japan | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Pittsburgh, PA | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Portland, OR compare | 3% | 3¢ | $1K | Trade |
| Boston, MA compare | 3% | 3¢ | $281 | Trade |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Kalshi. A Yes contract at 83¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Kalshi vs Polymarket on this question
The same question on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 81¢ | 19¢ | 0.6¢ | $25 | $3K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 82¢ | 18¢ | 1.1¢ | $127 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Kalshi's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
The market asks: “Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Denver, CO before Jan 1, 2027?” Each outcome is its own contract: it pays $1 if it is the answer, and nothing if not. Kalshi publishes the full settlement rules on the market's page. Read them on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Scheduled resolution: Jan 8, 2027.
How to trade this market on Kalshi
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Kalshi account. Our Kalshi review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 83¢ for Denver, CO right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Kalshi's fees apply to each trade.
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CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Kalshi odds on “Where will Waymo operate in 2026?”?
On Kalshi, the busiest line, Denver, CO, is at 83%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Kalshi's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Polymarket too?
Yes. Polymarket's page has its prices and rules. Our side-by-side page shows both prices and both venues' rules.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Kalshi. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Kalshi odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Kalshi?
A trading fee on each contract, largest near 50¢ and smaller towards either end. Kalshi's fees has the formula.