Which cities will Waymo launch in by December 31? Polymarket odds
On Polymarket, the busiest line, Sacramento, CA, is at 16%. The market settles by Dec 31, 2026, and $872 traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 16¢ reads as a 16% chance. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Kalshi: compare both
15 of these outcomes are priced on Kalshi too: the favourite is compared below, and each outcome links its own comparison.
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento, CA compare | 16% | 16¢ | $400 | Trade |
| Washington, DC compare | 4% | 4¢ | $173 | Trade |
| Charlotte, NC compare | 4% | 4¢ | $120 | Trade |
| London, UK | 7% | 7¢ | $109 | Trade |
| Boston, MA compare | 5% | 5¢ | $40 | Trade |
| Denver, CO compare | 93% | 93¢ | $20 | Trade |
| Seattle, WA compare | 5% | 5¢ | $10 | Trade |
| Las Vegas, NV | 93% | 93¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Detroit, MI compare | 13% | 13¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Portland, OR compare | 9% | 9¢ | $0 | Trade |
Show 11 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans, LA compare | 8% | 8¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Baltimore, MD compare | 7% | 7¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Chicago, IL compare | 6% | 6¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Philadelphia, PA | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Minneapolis, MN compare | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Tokyo, Japan | 5% | 5¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Pittsburgh, PA compare | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| New York, NY compare | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| St. Louis, MO compare | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| San Diego, CAFinal | 100% | 100¢ | $0 | |
| Tampa, FLFinal | 100% | 100¢ | $0 |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 16¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on this question
The same question on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 93¢ | 7¢ | free | $20 | $2K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 93¢ | 8¢ | 0.5¢ | $20 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Waymo begins offering its ride-hailing service to the general public within the listed city by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
A qualifying launch requires the general public be able to hail a Waymo vehicle within the listed city \ through the Waymo One app or another official Waymo platform (such as a dedicated website or integrated partner app like Uber).
Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify.
The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo (see: https://waymo.com/rides/c), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Scheduled resolution: Dec 31, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket app review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 16¢ for Sacramento, CA right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on “Which cities will Waymo launch in by December 31?”?
On Polymarket, the busiest line, Sacramento, CA, is at 16%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. Our side-by-side page shows both prices and both venues' rules.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.