Will Waymo launch in Sacramento, CA by December 31 2026? Odds and prices
Markets price "Will Waymo launch in Sacramento, CA by December 31 2026" at 12%, with 2 venues quoting within 2 points of each other. The contract settles by Dec 31, 2026; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 11¢cheapest to buy | 89¢ | 0.4¢ | $180 | $512 | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 13¢ | 87¢ | 0.8¢ | $292 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Waymo begins offering its ride-hailing service to the general public within the listed city by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Waymo begins offering its ride-hailing service to the general public within the listed city by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
A qualifying launch requires the general public be able to hail a Waymo vehicle within the listed city \ through the Waymo One app or another official Waymo platform (such as a dedicated website or integrated partner app like Uber).
Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify.
The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Waymo is operating commercial autonomous vehicle ride-hailing services available to the general public within Sacramento, CA before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
"Operating commercial services" means that members of the general public can download the Waymo app (or access Waymo through a partner app), request a ride with pickup and dropoff locations within Sacramento, CA, and receive autonomous vehicle service for a fee. The service must be available to the general public without requiring special invitation codes, waitlist approval, or participation in testing programs, though geographic coverage within Sacramento, CA may be limited to certain areas. Services operating exclusively with safety drivers present do not satisfy the Payout Criterion; the service must offer fully autonomous rides (without a human safety driver) at least some of the time. Examples that WOULD resolve to Yes: Waymo launches public commercial service in any part of Sacramento, CA Waymo expands from adjacent areas into Sacramento, CA limits Waymo operates 24/7 service or limited hours service within Sacramento, CA Waymo offers service through the Uber app to all users in Sacramento, CA Service is geofenced to only certain neighborhoods but is public Examples that would resolve to No: Waymo only operates employee shuttles or closed testing in Sacramento, CA Waymo only has an office or maintenance facility in Sacramento, CA All Waymo vehicles in Sacramento, CA have safety drivers Waymo is testing but not offering paid public rides Service requires being on a waitlist or having a special code Waymo announces plans to launch but hasn't started service by Jan 1, 2027
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Will Waymo launch in Sacramento, CA by December 31 2026"?
Markets currently price it at 12% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "Will Waymo launch in Sacramento, CA by December 31 2026"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.