Polymarket market

Polymarket Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released odds

On Polymarket, the busiest line, November 30, is at 79%. The market settles by Nov 30, 2026, and $18K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 79¢ reads as a 79% chance.

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Polymarket · odds · updated

October 2839%
October 2942%
November 3079%
October 3050%
October 3155%

All 10 outcomes, in order ↓

$18K
24h volume on Polymarket
$85K
total volume on Polymarket
8
open of 10 outcomes
Nov 30, 2026
settles

Polymarket odds on every outcome

Polymarket odds on each outcome of Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released
OutcomeChanceYes price24h volume
October 231%1¢$3KTrade
October 2614%14¢$3KTrade
October 2720%20¢$809Trade
October 2839%39¢$682Trade
October 2942%42¢$1KTrade
November 3079%79¢$4KTrade
October 3050%50¢$3KTrade
October 3155%55¢$3KTrade
September 30Final0%0¢$0
August 31Final0%0¢$0
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Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 1¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.

How the odds have moved

Polymarket · November 30
79%▲ 50.9 pts since Oct 16
Yes price
Oct 1627% – 97% scaleOct 23

Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.

How this market resolves

Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.

Show the full rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's next GPT Terra model (5.7+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Terra" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Terra would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Terra or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Terra" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Sol, or GPT-5.6 Luna, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Scheduled resolution: Nov 30, 2026.

How to trade this market on Polymarket

  1. Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
  2. Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
  3. Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 1¢ for October 23 right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
  4. Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
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Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.

Common questions

What are the Polymarket odds on Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released?

On Polymarket, the busiest line, November 30, is at 79%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.

How does this market resolve?

By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.

Is this question on Kalshi too?

We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.

Can I trade this market in my state?

In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.

How accurate are Polymarket odds?

Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?

A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.