How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 19? Polymarket odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is 25-29, at 34%. The market settles by Oct 25, 2026, and $1K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 34¢ reads as a 34% chance. We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet, so there is no second price.
Polymarket odds on every outcome
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 34¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from October 19, 2026, through October 25, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Scheduled resolution: Oct 25, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 34¢ for 25-29 right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.
More world markets
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting
Polymarket · resolves Oct 30, 2026
$294K in 24h on Polymarket
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...
Polymarket · resolves Dec 31, 2026
$215K in 24h on Polymarket
Xi Jinping out before 2027
Polymarket · resolves Dec 31, 2026
$192K in 24h on Polymarket
Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
Polymarket · resolves Oct 31, 2026
$64K in 24h on Polymarket
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
Polymarket · Kalshi · resolves Dec 31, 2026
$46K in 24h, both venues
Iran charges Hormuz fees
Polymarket · resolves Dec 31, 2026
$23K in 24h on Polymarket
Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on “How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 19?”?
On Polymarket, the favourite is 25-29, at 34%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.