Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026? Polymarket odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is Spider-Man: Brand New Day, at 63%. The market settles by Jan 31, 2027, and $28K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 63¢ reads as a 63% chance.
Polymarket · odds · updated
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 63% | 63¢ | $11K | Trade |
| Avengers: Doomsday | 36% | 36¢ | $17K | Trade |
| Dune: Messiah | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| MichaelFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| The OdysseyFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| Toy Story 5Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| Wuthering HeightsFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| Project Hail MaryFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| Scream 7Final | 0% | 0¢ | $0 |
Show 2 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Star Wars: The Mandalorian and GroguFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| The Super Mario Galaxy MovieFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 63¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Scheduled resolution: Jan 31, 2027.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 63¢ for Spider-Man: Brand New Day right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
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Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on “Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?”?
On Polymarket, the favourite is Spider-Man: Brand New Day, at 63%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.