Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Odds and prices
"Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026" is priced at 3% on Polymarket, 7% on Polymarket US and 15% on Kalshi, 12 points apart: the venues disagree, so 8% is their average, not a consensus. The contract settles by Dec 31, 2026; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket, Polymarket US and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 3¢cheapest to buy | 97¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | $3K | Trade → |
| Polymarket US$25 bonusUS residents only | 7¢cheapest to buy | 94¢ | 0.4–0.6¢ | – | – | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 15¢ | 85¢ | 0.9¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
This market will settle to Yes if DeepSeek has the #1 ranked AI model on the Arena AI Text Arena leaderboard at any point between Contract Issuance and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (Style Control…
Full settlement wording
This market will settle to Yes if DeepSeek has the #1 ranked AI model on the Arena AI Text Arena leaderboard at any point between Contract Issuance and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (Style Control Off). Outcome sourced from Arena AI.
The #1 ranking is determined by the "Rank" column of the Arena AI Text Arena leaderboard, with Style Control toggled off (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control).
If multiple models from different companies are tied for rank #1, both models will be considered a #1 ranked model.
If DeepSeek has a model on the Pareto frontier of Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index vs. Cost per Intelligence Index Task chart on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Resolves at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2026, using the chart on artificialanalysis.ai with the Pareto line shown. A model counts for the creator Artificial Analysis lists for it. A model is on the frontier if the chart's Pareto line passes through it: no other plotted model has an Intelligence Index at least as high and a Cost per Task at least as low, both unrounded, with one of the two strictly better; models with identical values are both on it. A model without a positive Cost per Task is not plotted and cannot be on the frontier.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026"?
The venues disagree: 3% on Polymarket, 7% on Polymarket US and 15% on Kalshi. The 8% shown is their average; the gap often comes from settlement rules worded differently, compared on this page.
Where can I trade "Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026"?
On Polymarket, Polymarket US and Kalshi. Polymarket US takes US residents only; from the US, polymarket.com is close-only. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.