Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026? Kalshi odds
On Kalshi, the busiest line, Meta, is at 32%. The market settles by Dec 31, 2026, and $551 traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 32¢ reads as a 32% chance. Polymarket and Polymarket US list it too, and we compare the prices below.
Claim $50 bonus on KalshiTrade on Kalshi
$50 bonusNew to Kalshi? Trade $25, get a $50 bonus through our link. US only, 18+. Kalshi promo code terms
Also on Polymarket: Polymarket's page
Kalshi · odds · updated
Also priced on Polymarket and Polymarket US: 2 questions compared ↓
Kalshi odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta | 32% | 32¢ | $250 | Trade |
| OpenAI | 92% | 92¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Anthropic | 90% | 90¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Google compare | 55% | 55¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Moonshot AI | 30% | 30¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Z AI | 27% | 27¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Alibaba compare | 17% | 17¢ | $0 | Trade |
| xAI | 17% | 17¢ | $0 | Trade |
| DeepSeek compare | 15% | 15¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Tencent | 15% | 15¢ | $0 | Trade |
Show 8 more outcomes
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Kalshi. A Yes contract at 32¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Kalshi vs Polymarket on these questions
The same questions on each venue: Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | <1¢cheapest to buy | >99¢ | <0.1¢ | $12 | $5K | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 17¢ | 84¢ | 1.0¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 3¢cheapest to buy | 97¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | $3K | Trade → |
| Polymarket US$25 bonusUS residents only | 7¢cheapest to buy | 94¢ | 0.4–0.6¢ | – | – | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 15¢ | 85¢ | 0.9¢ | $0 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Kalshi's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
The market asks: “Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026?” Each outcome is its own contract: it pays $1 if it is the answer, and nothing if not. Kalshi publishes the full settlement rules on the market's page. Read them on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Scheduled resolution: Dec 31, 2026.
How to trade this market on Kalshi
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Kalshi account. Our Kalshi review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 32¢ for Meta right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Kalshi's fees apply to each trade.
$50 bonusNew to Kalshi? Trade $25, get a $50 bonus through our link. US only, 18+. Kalshi promo code terms
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
More tech & science markets
Best AI at the end of 2026
Kalshi · resolves Dec 31, 2026
$126K in 24h on Kalshi
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
Polymarket · Kalshi · resolves Jan 1, 2027
$139K in 24h, both venues
GPT Astra 6.1+ released
Polymarket · resolves Dec 31, 2026
$37K in 24h on Polymarket
OpenAI market share this week
Kalshi · resolves Nov 22, 2026
$33K in 24h on Kalshi
Which company has the best AI model end of November?
Polymarket · Polymarket US · resolves Nov 30, 2026
$27K in 24h on Polymarket
GPT Astra 6.1+ released on...
Polymarket · Polymarket US · resolves Nov 30, 2026
$20K in 24h on Polymarket
Common questions
What are the Kalshi odds on “Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026?”?
On Kalshi, the busiest line, Meta, is at 32%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Kalshi's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Polymarket too?
Yes. It trades on Polymarket and Polymarket US. Polymarket's page has its prices and rules. The 2 questions both venues price are compared above, each with its own side-by-side page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Kalshi. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Kalshi odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Kalshi?
A trading fee on each contract, largest near 50¢ and smaller towards either end. Kalshi's fees has the formula.