Polymarket Illinois Senate Election odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is Juliana Stratton (D), at 98%. The market settles by Nov 3, 2026. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 98¢ reads as a 98% chance. We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet, so there is no second price.
Polymarket · odds · updated
Polymarket odds on every outcome
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 98¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Scheduled resolution: Nov 3, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 98¢ for Juliana Stratton (D) right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
Not on Kalshi here yet: we have not matched this question to a Kalshi market, so there is no second price to compare. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.
More politics markets
Brazil Presidential election
Polymarket · Kalshi · resolves Oct 25, 2026
$5.8M in 24h, both venues
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Polymarket · resolves Nov 3, 2026
$774K in 24h on Polymarket
What will Trump say this week?
Kalshi · resolves Oct 5, 2026
$701K in 24h on Kalshi
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election
Polymarket · Kalshi · resolves Oct 27, 2026
$582K in 24h on Polymarket
Next French Presidential Election
Polymarket · resolves Apr 18, 2027
$550K in 24h on Polymarket
2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power
Kalshi · resolves Feb 1, 2027
$528K in 24h on Kalshi
Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Illinois Senate Election?
On Polymarket, the favourite is Juliana Stratton (D), at 98%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.