Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election? Polymarket odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is Democratic, at 66%. The market settles by Nov 7, 2028, and $113 traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 66¢ reads as a 66% chance. It also trades on Polymarket US, linked below; no Kalshi market is matched yet.
This question also has a permanent page: 2028 US presidential election odds
Also on Polymarket US: Polymarket US's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Polymarket odds on every outcome
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 66¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.
This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Scheduled resolution: Nov 7, 2028.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. A few states restrict some contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Is Polymarket safe? Our review covers how your money is held and paid out.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 66¢ for Democratic right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
The same question trades on Polymarket US too: Polymarket US's page. We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. Kalshi vs Polymarket compares the two venues.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on “Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?”?
On Polymarket, the favourite is Democratic, at 66%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
We have not matched it to a Kalshi market yet. When we do, both prices appear side by side here. It also trades on Polymarket US: Polymarket US's page.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. A few states have acted against some contracts. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.