Polymarket Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is Harry Kane, at 70%. The market settles by Dec 31, 2026, and $3.2M traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 70¢ reads as a 70% chance. Polymarket US and Kalshi list it too, and we compare the prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Also on Polymarket US: Polymarket US's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Polymarket US and Kalshi: compare them
15 of these outcomes are priced on Polymarket US and Kalshi too: the favourite is compared below, and each outcome links its own comparison.
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane compare | 70% | 70¢ | $402K | Trade |
| Kylian Mbappé compare | 18% | 18¢ | $602K | Trade |
| Lamine Yamal compare | 11% | 11¢ | $514K | Trade |
| Lionel Messi compare | 1% | 1¢ | $346K | Trade |
| Rodri compare | <1% | <1¢ | $303K | Trade |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia compare | <1% | <1¢ | $357K | Trade |
| Ousmane Dembélé compare | – | – | $236K | Trade |
| Erling Haaland compare | – | – | $11K | Trade |
| Fabian Ruiz | – | – | $161K | Trade |
| Michael Olise compare | – | – | $132K | Trade |
Show 30 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jude Bellingham compare | – | – | $22K | Trade |
| Vinícius Júnior | – | – | $2K | Trade |
| Vitinha compare | – | – | $26K | Trade |
| Declan Rice compare | – | – | $2K | Trade |
| Bruno Fernandes compare | – | – | $1K | Trade |
| Lautaro Martinez compare | – | – | $1K | Trade |
| Luis Diaz compare | – | – | $2K | Trade |
| Pau Cubarsi | – | – | $21K | Trade |
| Achraf Hakimi | – | – | $1K | Trade |
| Ferran Torres | – | – | $6K | Trade |
| Gavi | – | – | $4K | Trade |
| Dayot Upamecano | – | – | $1K | Trade |
| Nuno Mendes | – | – | $1K | Trade |
| Sadio Mané | – | – | $1K | Trade |
| Marquinhos | – | – | $1K | Trade |
| Gabriel Magalhães | – | – | $1K | Trade |
| Willian Pacho | – | – | $1K | Trade |
| Marc Cucurella | – | – | $1K | Trade |
| Julián Quiñones | – | – | $1K | Trade |
| William Saliba | – | – | $1K | Trade |
| João Neves | – | – | $1K | Trade |
| Mohamed SalahFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| PedriFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| Desire DoueFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| Julian AlvarezFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| RaphinhaFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| Cole PalmerFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| Cristiano RonaldoFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| Federico ValverdeFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| Dominik SzoboszlaiFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 |
3 more outcomes are priced on Polymarket: the full board on Polymarket (opens in a new tab).
Close-only for US residentsChance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 70¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on this question
The same question on each venue: Polymarket, Polymarket US and Kalshi. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 70¢cheapest to buy | 30¢ | 0.6¢ | $402K | $150K | Trade → |
| Polymarket USUS residents only | 73¢ | 28¢ | 1.4¢ | – | – | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 72¢cheapest to buy | 29¢ | 1.4¢ | $110K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Scheduled resolution: Oct 26, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. Several states restrict sports contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Is Polymarket safe? Our review covers how your money is held and paid out.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 70¢ for Harry Kane right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Ballon d'Or Winner 2026?
On Polymarket, the favourite is Harry Kane, at 70%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. It trades on Polymarket US and Kalshi. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. Our side-by-side page shows every venue’s prices and rules.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. Sports contracts are the exception: several states restrict them. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.