Polymarket Ballon d'Or Winner 2026 odds
On Polymarket, the favourite is Harry Kane, at 47%. The market settles by Dec 31, 2026, and $360K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 47¢ reads as a 47% chance. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Kalshi: compare both
11 of these outcomes are priced on Kalshi too: the favourite is compared below, and each outcome links its own comparison.
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane compare | 47% | 47¢ | $29K | Trade |
| Lamine Yamal compare | 43% | 43¢ | $41K | Trade |
| Lionel Messi compare | 3% | 3¢ | $50K | Trade |
| Kylian Mbappé compare | 3% | 3¢ | $70K | Trade |
| Rodri compare | 2% | 2¢ | $38K | Trade |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia compare | 1% | 1¢ | $17K | Trade |
| Ousmane Dembélé compare | <1% | <1¢ | $16K | Trade |
| Michael Olise compare | <1% | <1¢ | $23K | Trade |
| Fabian Ruiz | <1% | <1¢ | $28K | Trade |
| Erling Haaland compare | <1% | <1¢ | $14K | Trade |
Show 21 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jude Bellingham compare | – | – | $20K | Trade |
| Declan Rice compare | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Pau Cubarsi | – | – | $15K | Trade |
| Vinícius Júnior | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Vitinha | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Achraf Hakimi | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Bruno Fernandes | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Lautaro Martinez | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Luis Diaz | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Mohamed SalahFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| PedriFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| Desire DoueFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| Julian AlvarezFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| RaphinhaFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| Cole PalmerFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| Cristiano RonaldoFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| Federico ValverdeFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| Dominik SzoboszlaiFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| Bukayo SakaFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| RodrygoFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 | |
| Enzo FernandezFinal | 0% | 0¢ | $0 |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 47¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on this question
The same question on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 47¢cheapest to buy | 53¢ | 0.7¢ | $29K | $101K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 50¢ | 50¢ | 1.7¢ | $28K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
Scheduled resolution: Dec 31, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. Several states restrict sports contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 47¢ for Harry Kane right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on Ballon d'Or Winner 2026?
On Polymarket, the favourite is Harry Kane, at 47%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. Our side-by-side page shows both prices and both venues' rules.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. Sports contracts are the exception: several states restrict them. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.