Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026? Kalshi odds
On Kalshi, the favourite is Harry Kane, at 72%. The market settles by Jan 1, 2027, and $1.4M traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 72¢ reads as a 72% chance. Polymarket and Polymarket US list it too, and we compare the prices below.
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Also on Polymarket: Polymarket's page
Kalshi · odds · updated
Also priced on Polymarket and Polymarket US: compare them
16 of these outcomes are priced on Polymarket and Polymarket US too: the favourite is compared below, and each outcome links its own comparison.
Kalshi odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane compare | 72% | 72¢ | $110K | Trade |
| Kylian Mbappe compare | 18% | 18¢ | $385K | Trade |
| Lamine Yamal compare | 13% | 13¢ | $407K | Trade |
| Lionel Messi compare | 2% | 2¢ | $301K | Trade |
| Rodri compare | 1% | 1¢ | $130K | Trade |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia compare | 1% | 1¢ | $39K | Trade |
| Ousmane Dembele compare | 1% | 1¢ | $30K | Trade |
| Erling Haaland compare | 1% | 1¢ | $18K | Trade |
| Vitinha compare | 1% | 1¢ | $3K | Trade |
| Jude Bellingham compare | 1% | 1¢ | $3K | Trade |
Show 7 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Olise compare | 1% | 1¢ | $2K | Trade |
| Bruno Fernandes compare | 1% | 1¢ | $2K | Trade |
| Declan Rice compare | 1% | 1¢ | $795 | Trade |
| Vinicius Junior compare | 1% | 1¢ | $421 | Trade |
| Lautaro Martinez compare | 1% | 1¢ | $94 | Trade |
| Luis Diaz compare | 1% | 1¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Nuno Mendes | 1% | 1¢ | $0 | Trade |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Kalshi. A Yes contract at 72¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Kalshi vs Polymarket on this question
The same question on each venue: Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 70¢cheapest to buy | 30¢ | 0.6¢ | $385K | $153K | Trade → |
| Polymarket USUS residents only | 73¢ | 28¢ | 1.4¢ | – | – | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 72¢cheapest to buy | 29¢ | 1.4¢ | $110K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Kalshi's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
The market asks: “Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?” Each outcome is its own contract: it pays $1 if it is the answer, and nothing if not. Kalshi publishes the full settlement rules on the market's page. Read them on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Scheduled resolution: Jan 1, 2027.
How to trade this market on Kalshi
- Check your state first. Several states restrict sports contracts.
- Open a Kalshi account. Is Kalshi legit? Our review covers safety, sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 72¢ for Harry Kane right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Kalshi's fees apply to each trade.
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Common questions
What are the Kalshi odds on “Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?”?
On Kalshi, the favourite is Harry Kane, at 72%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Kalshi's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Polymarket too?
Yes. It trades on Polymarket and Polymarket US. Polymarket's page has its prices and rules. Our side-by-side page shows every venue’s prices and rules.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Kalshi. Sports contracts are the exception: several states restrict them. Check your state first.
How accurate are Kalshi odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Kalshi?
A trading fee on each contract, largest near 50¢ and smaller towards either end. Kalshi's fees has the formula.