Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Odds and prices
Markets price "Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or" at <1%, with 2 venues quoting at the same price. The contract settles by Dec 31, 2026; each venue words its settlement rules itself, compared below.
This question on Polymarket and Kalshi.
Odds by venue
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | <1¢ | >99¢ | <0.1¢ | $19K | $426K | Trade → |
| Kalshi | 1¢ | 99¢ | <0.1¢ | $2K | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
One venue's series for the result the headline prices, not a blend; venues tick at different cadences and interpolating one onto the other would invent points.
What the market is actually pricing
Venues word settlement differently for the same question, and the difference decides who gets paid. This is the comparison no venue publishes about its rivals.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
Full settlement wording
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or.
If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).
If Erling Haaland wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Where you can trade this
The Trade links in the tables above open each venue's own market. The reviews cover sign-up, funding and payouts.
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Common questions
What are the odds on "Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or"?
Markets currently price it at <1% across 2 venues, a market-implied probability rather than a forecast.
Where can I trade "Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or"?
On Polymarket and Kalshi. Availability by state varies for sports contracts; see the legal pages.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Different traders, different fees, and different settlement wording. The gap is the reason this page exists; the cheaper side is marked in the table.