Who will attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony? Polymarket odds
On Polymarket, the busiest line, Ousmane Dembélé, is at 97%. The market settles by Nov 30, 2026, and $20K traded in the last 24 hours. Each contract pays $1 if it is right, so 97¢ reads as a 97% chance. Kalshi lists it too, and we compare the two prices below.
Also on Kalshi: Kalshi's page
Polymarket · odds · updated
Also priced on Kalshi: compare both
Polymarket odds on every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ousmane Dembélé | 97% | 97¢ | $4K | Trade |
| Ronaldinho | 14% | 14¢ | $3K | Trade |
| Zinedine Zidane | 77% | 77¢ | $2K | Trade |
| Lionel Messi | 31% | 31¢ | $2K | Trade |
| Vincent Kompany | 3% | 3¢ | $1K | Trade |
| Sergio Ramos | 7% | 7¢ | $1K | Trade |
| Jude Bellingham | 84% | 84¢ | $1K | Trade |
| Kylian Mbappé | 97% | 97¢ | $821 | Trade |
| Jürgen Klopp | 6% | 6¢ | $705 | Trade |
| DJ Snake | 17% | 17¢ | $503 | Trade |
Show 19 more outcomes
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | 24h volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaka | 5% | 5¢ | $232 | Trade |
| Michael Owen | 58% | 58¢ | $192 | Trade |
| Princess Charlene of Monaco | 26% | 26¢ | $81 | Trade |
| Michael Olise | 49% | 49¢ | $80 | Trade |
| Ronaldo Nazário | 31% | 31¢ | $47 | Trade |
| Vozinha | 95% | 95¢ | $43 | Trade |
| David Beckham | 61% | 61¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Luis Enrique | 4% | 4¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Thierry Henry | 99% | 99¢ | $712 | Trade |
| Fabián Ruiz | 3% | 3¢ | $277 | Trade |
| Kate Scott | 99% | 99¢ | $20 | Trade |
| Rodri | 98% | 98¢ | $9 | Trade |
| Lamine Yamal | 99% | 99¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Harry Kane | 98% | 98¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Xavi Hernandez | 3% | 3¢ | $0 | Trade |
| Erling Haaland | – | – | $0 | Trade |
| Vinícius Júnior compare | 80% | 80¢ | $267 | Trade |
| Pep Guardiola | – | – | $81 | Trade |
Chance is each outcome's Yes price on Polymarket. A Yes contract at 97¢ pays $1 if that outcome wins.
Polymarket vs Kalshi on this question
The same question on both venues. When the prices differ, the cheaper side costs you less for the same payout.
| Venue | Yes | No | Fee | 24h volume | Liquidity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketClose-only for US residents | 80¢ | 20¢ | 0.8¢ | $267 | $247 | Trade → |
| Kalshi$50 bonus | 1¢ | >99¢ | <0.1¢ | $421 | – | Trade → |
How the odds have moved
Polymarket's own series for the outcome the headline prices, from where its history starts; one venue, not a blend.
How this market resolves
Polymarket's own settlement wording, in full. This, not the headline, decides who gets paid.
Show the full rules
The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to be held in London on October 26, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the event is canceled or postponed beyond November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, attending the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Scheduled resolution: Nov 30, 2026.
How to trade this market on Polymarket
- Check your state first. Several states restrict sports contracts.
- Open a Polymarket account. Americans trade on Polymarket US. Our Polymarket review covers sign-up and payouts.
- Buy Yes or No at the price shown, 97¢ for Ousmane Dembélé right now. Each contract pays $1 if you are right.
- Sell any time before it settles, or hold to the result. Polymarket's fees apply to each trade.
CoinStats may earn a commission on links to venues. Prices are indicative and may differ when you trade.
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Common questions
What are the Polymarket odds on “Who will attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?”?
On Polymarket, the busiest line, Ousmane Dembélé, is at 97%. That is a market-implied probability, not a forecast, and it moves as traders buy and sell.
How does this market resolve?
By Polymarket's own settlement rules for this market. Two venues can word the same question differently and settle differently, so read them before you trade.
Is this question on Kalshi too?
Yes. Kalshi's page has its prices and rules. Our side-by-side page shows both prices and both venues' rules.
Can I trade this market in my state?
In most states, yes, on Polymarket US. Sports contracts are the exception: several states restrict them. Check your state first.
How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Often more accurate than polls, though never certain. A price of 70% should lose three times in ten. How accurate prediction markets are has the research.
What does it cost to trade on Polymarket?
A taker fee on most markets, largest near 50¢, and some categories charge nothing. Polymarket's fees has the detail.